A ground-motion prediction equation for Fennoscandian nuclear installations

We propose a ground-motion prediction equation (GMPE) for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis of nuclear installations in Finland. We collected and archived the acceleration recordings of 77 earthquakes from seismic stations on very hard rock (VHR, i.e., the shear-wave velocity in the upper 30 m of the geological profile = 2800 m/s according to the definition used in the nuclear industry) in Finland and Sweden since 2006 and computed the corresponding response spectra important for engineering evaluation. We augmented the narrow magnitude range of the local data by a subset of VHR recordings of 33 earthquakes from the Next Generation Attenuation for Central and Eastern North America (CENA) (NGA-East) database, mainly from eastern Canada. We adapted the backbone curves of the G16 equation proposed by Graizer (2016) for CENA. After the calibration, we evaluated the accuracy of the median prediction and the random error. We conclude that the GMPE developed can be used for predicting ground motions in Fennoscandia. Because of compatibility with the original G16 backbone curve and comparisons with the NGA-East GMPEs, we estimate that the formulation proposed is valid on VHR over the range of 2