Acidification and deoxygenation matter in assessing redistribution of global cold-water coral biodiversity induced by climate change

The ocean is undergoing significant changes, including warming, acidification, and deoxygenation, which pose great challenges to marine biodiversity. However, most models projecting the impacts of climate change on marine species overlook predictor variables critically meaningful for species' ecologies such as pH and dissolved oxygen. The recent release of high-resolution projections of different future climate-change scenarios offers the opportunity to explore species redistribution under multiple threats beyond ocean warming. Accordingly, we conducted a global comparative analysis to study the impact of incorporating predictor variables describing pH and dissolved oxygen into marine species distribution models. We used models trained for 268 cold-water coral species to project potential future distributions for different climate and dispersal scenarios over different time periods. We found that, irrespective of scenario or period, models using pH and dissolved oxygen projected 11.5–21.4% higher impacts of climate change than those without them. For instance, by the end of the century under a high emission scenario, models including pH and oxygen projected an average range contraction of 48.2% for cold-water corals under a no-dispersal scenario, compared with a 26.8% contraction projected by models excluding these two predictors. Given the substantial differences in the predicted distribution patterns and the biological importance of these variables, we highlight that researchers should consider more diverse sets of predictor variables when predicting future range shifts for marine biodiversity assessments under climate change.