Catching the future: Using Bayesian belief networks to visualise and examine the sustainability of Baltic herring and salmon fisheries under alternative explanatory scenarios

Mia Pihlajamäki, Annukka Maaria Lehikoinen, Päivi Elisabet Haapasaari, Lauri Juhani Ronkainen, Sarkki Simo, Timo P. Karjalainen

Research output: Conference materialsAbstract

Abstract

Exploratory scenario method is often used in planning for long‐term sustainable use of environmental resources. The method is deterministic, which means that the scenarioforming factors are fixed within each storyline, although in practice uncertainties are inherent to them. Combining probabilistic methods such as Bayesian belief networks (BBN) with exploratory scenario analysis can be useful to account for these uncertainties. Another advantage of combining the two methods is that the BBN expands the analysis beyond the fixed storylines to cover all possible combinations of the states of the scenario‐forming factors. The aim of this paper is to combine the two methods to examine the future sustainability of Baltic herring and salmon fisheries. We built four exploratory scenarios following the matrix logic approach and formulated them into a BBN to visualise the assumed causalities. We also used the BBN to examine quantitatively how changes in the societal drivers affect the social‐ecological system and ultimately the fisheries management objectives, including achieving good environmental status and increasing fisheries contribution to food security and safety. The empirical
Original languageEnglish
Publication statusPublished - Oct 2017
EventBONUS SYMPOSIUM: Science delivery for sustainable use of the Baltic Sea living resources - Tallinna, Estonia
Duration: 17 Oct 201719 Oct 2017

Conference

ConferenceBONUS SYMPOSIUM: Science delivery for sustainable use of the Baltic Sea living resources
Country/TerritoryEstonia
CityTallinna
Period17/10/201719/10/2017

Fields of Science

  • 1172 Environmental sciences

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