Is tobacco leaf export related to the implementation of tobacco demand reduction measures?

This study examines the relationship between the export of raw tobacco and the national implementation of measures aimed at reducing tobacco demand. This was a cross-sectional study utilizing multinomial regression analysis. Using WHO Global Tobacco Epidemic data, FCTC Global Progress Report data and International Trade Data from 2020 for 181 countries, this research investigates the association between the export of raw tobacco as a percentage of GDP and both tobacco tax rates, as well as the implementation of tobacco advertising, promotion, and sponsorship (TAPS) bans. The results show that countries with higher dependence on tobacco leaf exports had a substantially and consistently lower level of TAPS ban implementation, with a large negative association that remained robust across model specifications. However, tobacco leaf exports showed no significant association with tax rates. Furthermore, countries with weaker governance structures tended to have lower tax rates. These findings underscore the crucial role of enforcing Article 5.3 of the FCTC to protect TAPS policies from tobacco industry interference, particularly in countries with strong tobacco farming and export dependence, where implementation of such policies appears to be weaker. Additionally, the study emphasizes the importance of capacity-building efforts in regions with weaker governance structures to promote effective tobacco tax policies.