Post-release outcomes of lethal and non-lethal offenders: recidivism and participation in employment or education

This study examines post-release outcomes of former prisoners convicted of severe violence. We use random intercept models to compare recidivism and participation in employment or education among Finnish offenders convicted of homicide (n = 509), attempted homicide (n = 800), or aggravated assault (n = 1714). A matching algorithm is used to adjust for observed preexisting differences among the three offender groups.

Within 3 years post-release, 52% (95% CI: 48–56%) of homicide, 57% (95% CI: 54–61%) of attempted homicide, and 79% (95% CI: 77–81%) of aggravated assault offenders engaged in general recidivism. Violent recidivism rates were 27% (95% CI: 23–31%), 36% (95% CI: 33–39%) and 52% (95% CI: 49–54), respectively. At the end of the 3-year period, 24% (95% CI: 20–28%) of homicide, 20% (95% CI: 17–23) of attempted homicide, and 16% (95% CI: 14–19%) aggravated assault offenders participated in employment or education. When matched based on pre-incarceration characteristics, disparities in post-release outcomes between the offenders convicted of completed versus attempted homicide were attenuated and no longer statistically significant.

Despite homicide representing the most severe form of violence and leading to substantially longer prison sentences compared to non-lethal violence, homicide offenders do not exhibit worse post-release outcomes than those convicted of attempted homicide or aggravated assault.