Predicting local ice loads on ship bow as a function of ice and operational conditions in the Southern Sea

Mikko Kotilainen, Jarno Vanhatalo, Mikko Suominen, Pentti Kujala

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

Abstract

Transportation in ice-prone waters is a timely topic because of the pursuit of natural resources and sea routes. S.A. Agulhas II voyaged in Antarctic waters during the austral summer of 2013–14. This paper studies how the local ice-induced loads on the ship bow are affected by different ice and operational conditions. A hierarchical Gaussian process model was used to study how the load distribution parameters change in different conditions. The operational conditions are described by ship speed, whereas the ice conditions varied from thin, first-year ice, to thick, multiyear ice. Because of this variation, the ice conditions are not represented by ice thickness alone but also by latitude, temperature and voyage time which represent the unmeasured ice strength. The predicted loads from the model match well with the measured loads. According to the model, loads increase in higher ship speed and ice thickness combination, further south, later in the summer and in higher temperatures.
Original languageEnglish
JournalShip technology research
Volume65
Issue number2
Pages (from-to)87-101
Number of pages15
ISSN0937-7255
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2 Apr 2018
MoE publication typeA1 Journal article-refereed

Fields of Science

  • 214 Mechanical engineering
  • 112 Statistics and probability

Cite this

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title = "Predicting local ice loads on ship bow as a function of ice and operational conditions in the Southern Sea",
abstract = "Transportation in ice-prone waters is a timely topic because of the pursuit of natural resources and sea routes. S.A. Agulhas II voyaged in Antarctic waters during the austral summer of 2013–14. This paper studies how the local ice-induced loads on the ship bow are affected by different ice and operational conditions. A hierarchical Gaussian process model was used to study how the load distribution parameters change in different conditions. The operational conditions are described by ship speed, whereas the ice conditions varied from thin, first-year ice, to thick, multiyear ice. Because of this variation, the ice conditions are not represented by ice thickness alone but also by latitude, temperature and voyage time which represent the unmeasured ice strength. The predicted loads from the model match well with the measured loads. According to the model, loads increase in higher ship speed and ice thickness combination, further south, later in the summer and in higher temperatures.",
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Predicting local ice loads on ship bow as a function of ice and operational conditions in the Southern Sea. / Kotilainen, Mikko; Vanhatalo, Jarno ; Suominen, Mikko; Kujala, Pentti.

In: Ship technology research, Vol. 65, No. 2, 02.04.2018, p. 87-101.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

TY - JOUR

T1 - Predicting local ice loads on ship bow as a function of ice and operational conditions in the Southern Sea

AU - Kotilainen, Mikko

AU - Vanhatalo, Jarno

AU - Suominen, Mikko

AU - Kujala, Pentti

PY - 2018/4/2

Y1 - 2018/4/2

N2 - Transportation in ice-prone waters is a timely topic because of the pursuit of natural resources and sea routes. S.A. Agulhas II voyaged in Antarctic waters during the austral summer of 2013–14. This paper studies how the local ice-induced loads on the ship bow are affected by different ice and operational conditions. A hierarchical Gaussian process model was used to study how the load distribution parameters change in different conditions. The operational conditions are described by ship speed, whereas the ice conditions varied from thin, first-year ice, to thick, multiyear ice. Because of this variation, the ice conditions are not represented by ice thickness alone but also by latitude, temperature and voyage time which represent the unmeasured ice strength. The predicted loads from the model match well with the measured loads. According to the model, loads increase in higher ship speed and ice thickness combination, further south, later in the summer and in higher temperatures.

AB - Transportation in ice-prone waters is a timely topic because of the pursuit of natural resources and sea routes. S.A. Agulhas II voyaged in Antarctic waters during the austral summer of 2013–14. This paper studies how the local ice-induced loads on the ship bow are affected by different ice and operational conditions. A hierarchical Gaussian process model was used to study how the load distribution parameters change in different conditions. The operational conditions are described by ship speed, whereas the ice conditions varied from thin, first-year ice, to thick, multiyear ice. Because of this variation, the ice conditions are not represented by ice thickness alone but also by latitude, temperature and voyage time which represent the unmeasured ice strength. The predicted loads from the model match well with the measured loads. According to the model, loads increase in higher ship speed and ice thickness combination, further south, later in the summer and in higher temperatures.

KW - 214 Mechanical engineering

KW - 112 Statistics and probability

U2 - 10.1080/09377255.2018.1454390

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