Reliability of temperature signal in various climate indicators from northern Europe

Pertti Kaarlo Juhani Hari, Tuomas Aakala, Emmi Hilasvuori, Risto Häkkinen, Atte Antero Korhola, Mikko Korpela, Tapio Linkosalo, Harri Mäkinen, Eero Nikinmaa, Pekka Nöjd, Heikki Seppä, Mika Sulkava, Juhani Terhivuo, Heikki Tuomenvirta, Jan Björn Weckström, Jaakko Hollmén

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

Abstract

We collected relevant observational and measured annual-resolution time series dealing with climate in northern Europe, focusing in Finland. We analysed these series for the reliability of their temperature signal at annual and seasonal resolutions. Importantly, we analysed all of the indicators within the same statistical framework, which allows for their meaningful comparison. In this framework, we employed a cross-validation procedure designed to reduce the adverse effects of estimation bias that may inflate the reliability of various temperature indicators, especially when several indicators are used in a multiple regression model. In our data sets, timing of phenological observations and ice break-up were connected with spring, tree ring characteristics (width, density, carbon isotopic composition) with summer and ice formation with autumn temperatures. Baltic Sea ice extent and the duration of ice cover in different watercourses were good indicators of winter temperatures. Using combinations of various temperature indicator series resulted in reliable temperature signals for each of the four seasons, as well as a reliable annual temperature signal. The results hence demonstrated that we can obtain reliable temperature information over different seasons, using a careful selection of indicators, combining the results with regression analysis, and by determining the reliability of the obtained indicator.
Original languageEnglish
Article numbere0180042
JournalPLoS One
Volume12
Issue number6
Number of pages20
ISSN1932-6203
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2017
MoE publication typeA1 Journal article-refereed

Fields of Science

  • 119 Other natural sciences
  • 4112 Forestry

Cite this

Hari, Pertti Kaarlo Juhani ; Aakala, Tuomas ; Hilasvuori, Emmi ; Häkkinen, Risto ; Korhola, Atte Antero ; Korpela, Mikko ; Linkosalo, Tapio ; Mäkinen, Harri ; Nikinmaa, Eero ; Nöjd, Pekka ; Seppä, Heikki ; Sulkava, Mika ; Terhivuo, Juhani ; Tuomenvirta, Heikki ; Weckström, Jan Björn ; Hollmén, Jaakko. / Reliability of temperature signal in various climate indicators from northern Europe. In: PLoS One. 2017 ; Vol. 12, No. 6.
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title = "Reliability of temperature signal in various climate indicators from northern Europe",
abstract = "We collected relevant observational and measured annual-resolution time series dealing with climate in northern Europe, focusing in Finland. We analysed these series for the reliability of their temperature signal at annual and seasonal resolutions. Importantly, we analysed all of the indicators within the same statistical framework, which allows for their meaningful comparison. In this framework, we employed a cross-validation procedure designed to reduce the adverse effects of estimation bias that may inflate the reliability of various temperature indicators, especially when several indicators are used in a multiple regression model. In our data sets, timing of phenological observations and ice break-up were connected with spring, tree ring characteristics (width, density, carbon isotopic composition) with summer and ice formation with autumn temperatures. Baltic Sea ice extent and the duration of ice cover in different watercourses were good indicators of winter temperatures. Using combinations of various temperature indicator series resulted in reliable temperature signals for each of the four seasons, as well as a reliable annual temperature signal. The results hence demonstrated that we can obtain reliable temperature information over different seasons, using a careful selection of indicators, combining the results with regression analysis, and by determining the reliability of the obtained indicator.",
keywords = "119 Other natural sciences, 4112 Forestry",
author = "Hari, {Pertti Kaarlo Juhani} and Tuomas Aakala and Emmi Hilasvuori and Risto H{\"a}kkinen and Korhola, {Atte Antero} and Mikko Korpela and Tapio Linkosalo and Harri M{\"a}kinen and Eero Nikinmaa and Pekka N{\"o}jd and Heikki Sepp{\"a} and Mika Sulkava and Juhani Terhivuo and Heikki Tuomenvirta and Weckstr{\"o}m, {Jan Bj{\"o}rn} and Jaakko Hollm{\'e}n",
year = "2017",
doi = "10.1371/journal.pone.0180042",
language = "English",
volume = "12",
journal = "PLoS One",
issn = "1932-6203",
publisher = "PUBLIC LIBRARY OF SCIENCE",
number = "6",

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Hari, PKJ, Aakala, T, Hilasvuori, E, Häkkinen, R, Korhola, AA, Korpela, M, Linkosalo, T, Mäkinen, H, Nikinmaa, E, Nöjd, P, Seppä, H, Sulkava, M, Terhivuo, J, Tuomenvirta, H, Weckström, JB & Hollmén, J 2017, 'Reliability of temperature signal in various climate indicators from northern Europe', PLoS One, vol. 12, no. 6, e0180042. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0180042

Reliability of temperature signal in various climate indicators from northern Europe. / Hari, Pertti Kaarlo Juhani; Aakala, Tuomas; Hilasvuori, Emmi; Häkkinen, Risto; Korhola, Atte Antero; Korpela, Mikko; Linkosalo, Tapio; Mäkinen, Harri; Nikinmaa, Eero; Nöjd, Pekka; Seppä, Heikki; Sulkava, Mika; Terhivuo, Juhani; Tuomenvirta, Heikki; Weckström, Jan Björn; Hollmén, Jaakko.

In: PLoS One, Vol. 12, No. 6, e0180042, 2017.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

TY - JOUR

T1 - Reliability of temperature signal in various climate indicators from northern Europe

AU - Hari, Pertti Kaarlo Juhani

AU - Aakala, Tuomas

AU - Hilasvuori, Emmi

AU - Häkkinen, Risto

AU - Korhola, Atte Antero

AU - Korpela, Mikko

AU - Linkosalo, Tapio

AU - Mäkinen, Harri

AU - Nikinmaa, Eero

AU - Nöjd, Pekka

AU - Seppä, Heikki

AU - Sulkava, Mika

AU - Terhivuo, Juhani

AU - Tuomenvirta, Heikki

AU - Weckström, Jan Björn

AU - Hollmén, Jaakko

PY - 2017

Y1 - 2017

N2 - We collected relevant observational and measured annual-resolution time series dealing with climate in northern Europe, focusing in Finland. We analysed these series for the reliability of their temperature signal at annual and seasonal resolutions. Importantly, we analysed all of the indicators within the same statistical framework, which allows for their meaningful comparison. In this framework, we employed a cross-validation procedure designed to reduce the adverse effects of estimation bias that may inflate the reliability of various temperature indicators, especially when several indicators are used in a multiple regression model. In our data sets, timing of phenological observations and ice break-up were connected with spring, tree ring characteristics (width, density, carbon isotopic composition) with summer and ice formation with autumn temperatures. Baltic Sea ice extent and the duration of ice cover in different watercourses were good indicators of winter temperatures. Using combinations of various temperature indicator series resulted in reliable temperature signals for each of the four seasons, as well as a reliable annual temperature signal. The results hence demonstrated that we can obtain reliable temperature information over different seasons, using a careful selection of indicators, combining the results with regression analysis, and by determining the reliability of the obtained indicator.

AB - We collected relevant observational and measured annual-resolution time series dealing with climate in northern Europe, focusing in Finland. We analysed these series for the reliability of their temperature signal at annual and seasonal resolutions. Importantly, we analysed all of the indicators within the same statistical framework, which allows for their meaningful comparison. In this framework, we employed a cross-validation procedure designed to reduce the adverse effects of estimation bias that may inflate the reliability of various temperature indicators, especially when several indicators are used in a multiple regression model. In our data sets, timing of phenological observations and ice break-up were connected with spring, tree ring characteristics (width, density, carbon isotopic composition) with summer and ice formation with autumn temperatures. Baltic Sea ice extent and the duration of ice cover in different watercourses were good indicators of winter temperatures. Using combinations of various temperature indicator series resulted in reliable temperature signals for each of the four seasons, as well as a reliable annual temperature signal. The results hence demonstrated that we can obtain reliable temperature information over different seasons, using a careful selection of indicators, combining the results with regression analysis, and by determining the reliability of the obtained indicator.

KW - 119 Other natural sciences

KW - 4112 Forestry

U2 - 10.1371/journal.pone.0180042

DO - 10.1371/journal.pone.0180042

M3 - Article

VL - 12

JO - PLoS One

JF - PLoS One

SN - 1932-6203

IS - 6

M1 - e0180042

ER -