Shared socio-economic pathways extended for the Baltic Sea: exploring long-term environmental problems

Marianne Zandersen, Kari Petri Hyytiäinen, H. E. Markus Meier, Maciej T. Tomczak, Bauer Barbara, Päivi Elisabet Haapasaari, Jorgen E. Olesen, Bo G. Gustafsson, Jens Christian Refsgaard, Erik Fridell, Sampo Olavi Pihlainen, Martin D.A. Le Tissier, Anna-Kaisa Elisabet Kosenius, Detlef P. van Vuuren

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

Abstract

Long-term scenario analyses can be powerful tools to explore plausible futures of human development under changing environmental, social, and economic conditions and to evaluate implications of different approaches to reduce pollution and resource overuse. Vulnerable ecosystems like the Baltic Sea in North-Eastern Europe tend to be under pressure from multiple, interacting anthropogenic drivers both related to the local scale (e.g. land use change) and the global scale (e.g. climate change). There is currently a lack of scenarios supporting policy-making that systematically explore how global and regional developments could concurrently impact the Baltic Sea region. Here, we present five narratives for future development in the Baltic Sea region, consistent with the global Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) developed for climate research. We focus on agriculture, wastewater treatment, fisheries, shipping, and atmospheric deposition, which all represent major pressures on the Baltic Sea. While we find strong links between the global pathways and regional pressures, we also conclude that each pathway may very well be the host of different sectoral developments, which in turn may have different impacts on the ecosystem state. The extended SSP narratives for the Baltic Sea region are intended as a description of sectoral developments at regional scale that enable detailed scenario analysis and discussions across different sectors and disciplines, but within a common context. In addition, the extended SSPs can readily be combined with climate pathways for integrated scenario analysis of regional environmental problems.
Original languageEnglish
JournalRegional Environmental Change
Volume19
Issue number4
Pages (from-to)1073-1086
Number of pages14
ISSN1436-3798
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Apr 2019
MoE publication typeA1 Journal article-refereed

Fields of Science

  • AGRICULTURAL NITROGEN
  • Agriculture
  • CLIMATE-CHANGE RESEARCH
  • ECOSYSTEM
  • EMISSIONS
  • Environmental problems
  • FOOD
  • FUTURE
  • Fisheries
  • IMPACTS
  • MANAGEMENT
  • SANITATION
  • SCENARIOS
  • Scenarios
  • Shipping
  • Wastewater treatment

Cite this

Zandersen, Marianne ; Hyytiäinen, Kari Petri ; Meier, H. E. Markus ; Tomczak, Maciej T. ; Barbara, Bauer ; Haapasaari, Päivi Elisabet ; Olesen, Jorgen E. ; Gustafsson, Bo G. ; Refsgaard, Jens Christian ; Fridell, Erik ; Pihlainen, Sampo Olavi ; Le Tissier, Martin D.A. ; Kosenius, Anna-Kaisa Elisabet ; van Vuuren, Detlef P. / Shared socio-economic pathways extended for the Baltic Sea: exploring long-term environmental problems. In: Regional Environmental Change. 2019 ; Vol. 19, No. 4. pp. 1073-1086.
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abstract = "Long-term scenario analyses can be powerful tools to explore plausible futures of human development under changing environmental, social, and economic conditions and to evaluate implications of different approaches to reduce pollution and resource overuse. Vulnerable ecosystems like the Baltic Sea in North-Eastern Europe tend to be under pressure from multiple, interacting anthropogenic drivers both related to the local scale (e.g. land use change) and the global scale (e.g. climate change). There is currently a lack of scenarios supporting policy-making that systematically explore how global and regional developments could concurrently impact the Baltic Sea region. Here, we present five narratives for future development in the Baltic Sea region, consistent with the global Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) developed for climate research. We focus on agriculture, wastewater treatment, fisheries, shipping, and atmospheric deposition, which all represent major pressures on the Baltic Sea. While we find strong links between the global pathways and regional pressures, we also conclude that each pathway may very well be the host of different sectoral developments, which in turn may have different impacts on the ecosystem state. The extended SSP narratives for the Baltic Sea region are intended as a description of sectoral developments at regional scale that enable detailed scenario analysis and discussions across different sectors and disciplines, but within a common context. In addition, the extended SSPs can readily be combined with climate pathways for integrated scenario analysis of regional environmental problems.",
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author = "Marianne Zandersen and Hyyti{\"a}inen, {Kari Petri} and Meier, {H. E. Markus} and Tomczak, {Maciej T.} and Bauer Barbara and Haapasaari, {P{\"a}ivi Elisabet} and Olesen, {Jorgen E.} and Gustafsson, {Bo G.} and Refsgaard, {Jens Christian} and Erik Fridell and Pihlainen, {Sampo Olavi} and {Le Tissier}, {Martin D.A.} and Kosenius, {Anna-Kaisa Elisabet} and {van Vuuren}, {Detlef P.}",
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Zandersen, M, Hyytiäinen, KP, Meier, HEM, Tomczak, MT, Barbara, B, Haapasaari, PE, Olesen, JE, Gustafsson, BG, Refsgaard, JC, Fridell, E, Pihlainen, SO, Le Tissier, MDA, Kosenius, A-KE & van Vuuren, DP 2019, 'Shared socio-economic pathways extended for the Baltic Sea: exploring long-term environmental problems' Regional Environmental Change, vol. 19, no. 4, pp. 1073-1086. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-018-1453-0

Shared socio-economic pathways extended for the Baltic Sea: exploring long-term environmental problems. / Zandersen, Marianne; Hyytiäinen, Kari Petri; Meier, H. E. Markus; Tomczak, Maciej T.; Barbara, Bauer; Haapasaari, Päivi Elisabet; Olesen, Jorgen E.; Gustafsson, Bo G.; Refsgaard, Jens Christian; Fridell, Erik; Pihlainen, Sampo Olavi; Le Tissier, Martin D.A.; Kosenius, Anna-Kaisa Elisabet; van Vuuren, Detlef P.

In: Regional Environmental Change, Vol. 19, No. 4, 04.2019, p. 1073-1086.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

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T1 - Shared socio-economic pathways extended for the Baltic Sea: exploring long-term environmental problems

AU - Zandersen, Marianne

AU - Hyytiäinen, Kari Petri

AU - Meier, H. E. Markus

AU - Tomczak, Maciej T.

AU - Barbara, Bauer

AU - Haapasaari, Päivi Elisabet

AU - Olesen, Jorgen E.

AU - Gustafsson, Bo G.

AU - Refsgaard, Jens Christian

AU - Fridell, Erik

AU - Pihlainen, Sampo Olavi

AU - Le Tissier, Martin D.A.

AU - Kosenius, Anna-Kaisa Elisabet

AU - van Vuuren, Detlef P.

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Y1 - 2019/4

N2 - Long-term scenario analyses can be powerful tools to explore plausible futures of human development under changing environmental, social, and economic conditions and to evaluate implications of different approaches to reduce pollution and resource overuse. Vulnerable ecosystems like the Baltic Sea in North-Eastern Europe tend to be under pressure from multiple, interacting anthropogenic drivers both related to the local scale (e.g. land use change) and the global scale (e.g. climate change). There is currently a lack of scenarios supporting policy-making that systematically explore how global and regional developments could concurrently impact the Baltic Sea region. Here, we present five narratives for future development in the Baltic Sea region, consistent with the global Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) developed for climate research. We focus on agriculture, wastewater treatment, fisheries, shipping, and atmospheric deposition, which all represent major pressures on the Baltic Sea. While we find strong links between the global pathways and regional pressures, we also conclude that each pathway may very well be the host of different sectoral developments, which in turn may have different impacts on the ecosystem state. The extended SSP narratives for the Baltic Sea region are intended as a description of sectoral developments at regional scale that enable detailed scenario analysis and discussions across different sectors and disciplines, but within a common context. In addition, the extended SSPs can readily be combined with climate pathways for integrated scenario analysis of regional environmental problems.

AB - Long-term scenario analyses can be powerful tools to explore plausible futures of human development under changing environmental, social, and economic conditions and to evaluate implications of different approaches to reduce pollution and resource overuse. Vulnerable ecosystems like the Baltic Sea in North-Eastern Europe tend to be under pressure from multiple, interacting anthropogenic drivers both related to the local scale (e.g. land use change) and the global scale (e.g. climate change). There is currently a lack of scenarios supporting policy-making that systematically explore how global and regional developments could concurrently impact the Baltic Sea region. Here, we present five narratives for future development in the Baltic Sea region, consistent with the global Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) developed for climate research. We focus on agriculture, wastewater treatment, fisheries, shipping, and atmospheric deposition, which all represent major pressures on the Baltic Sea. While we find strong links between the global pathways and regional pressures, we also conclude that each pathway may very well be the host of different sectoral developments, which in turn may have different impacts on the ecosystem state. The extended SSP narratives for the Baltic Sea region are intended as a description of sectoral developments at regional scale that enable detailed scenario analysis and discussions across different sectors and disciplines, but within a common context. In addition, the extended SSPs can readily be combined with climate pathways for integrated scenario analysis of regional environmental problems.

KW - AGRICULTURAL NITROGEN

KW - Agriculture

KW - CLIMATE-CHANGE RESEARCH

KW - ECOSYSTEM

KW - EMISSIONS

KW - Environmental problems

KW - FOOD

KW - FUTURE

KW - Fisheries

KW - IMPACTS

KW - MANAGEMENT

KW - SANITATION

KW - SCENARIOS

KW - Scenarios

KW - Shipping

KW - Wastewater treatment

U2 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-018-1453-0

DO - https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-018-1453-0

M3 - Article

VL - 19

SP - 1073

EP - 1086

JO - Regional Environmental Change

JF - Regional Environmental Change

SN - 1436-3798

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ER -