Variation and change in the productivity of BE going to V in the Corpus of Historical American English, 1810–2009

This article focuses on the poster child of grammaticalization, BE going to V. First expressing ‘motion with intention’, in Early Modern English the construction came to signify ‘motionless intention’. The grammaticalization process continued in Late Modern English with subjectification, so that ‘intention’ was gradually replaced by ‘prediction’. We study the process from Late Modern to Present-Day English in the 200-million-word fiction section of the Corpus of Historical American English (COHA), 1810–2009, for which we have gender metadata on the authors. We focus on the productivity of the construction by comparing type frequencies, i.e., the number of different verbs following be going to. Our research questions are how the grammaticalization is reflected in the productivity of the construction, and whether the social factor of gender played a role in the process. We study the internal factors of mental verbs, inanimate subjects and passive voice; to this end, we use robust statistical methods to compare type frequencies and proportions of types over time. We also investigate the semantics of the verb types by drawing on techniques from distributional semantics. Our wider aim is to enrich the cognitively oriented theory of Construction Grammar with insights from historical sociolinguistics.