A dynamic model for estimating the long-term need for repairs and renovations in residential buildings

Antti Kurvinen, Janne Huovari, Markus Lahtinen, Tuuli Sen, Arto Saari

Tutkimustuotos: ArtikkelijulkaisuArtikkeliTieteellinenvertaisarvioitu

Abstrakti

Reaching sustainability targets requires a holistic understanding of the different dimensions of residential building stock development. This paper aims to provide a solid and transparent approach for modelling residential building stock development with a focus on the long-term need for repairs and renovations. The modelling approach is based on Dynamic Material Flow Analysis (MFA) and the model is constructed using comprehensive Finnish statistics. Still, it is widely applicable to different geographical locations and modifiable for various purposes. The main contributions to the previous literature are the incorporation of empirical building mortality analysis and rehabilitation degree model in the MFA modelling framework. The model is demonstrated by modelling the development of Finnish residential building stock from 2020 to 2050. The annual average need for renovation from 2020 to 2050 is 4.1 million residential square metres (1.8% percent of the entire housing stock), equalling to annual investments of some 7.8 billion euros. However, the results revealed notable geographical differences between municipality categories. The results also suggest that the proportion of renovations in the total construction market is increasing while the volume of new housing construction is decreasing. The modelled results are in line with the Finnish Long-Term Renovation Strategy 2020–2050.

Alkuperäiskielienglanti
LehtiBuilding Research and Information
Vuosikerta52
Numero5
Sivut533-550
Sivumäärä18
ISSN0961-3218
DOI - pysyväislinkit
TilaJulkaistu - 30 tammik. 2024
Julkaistu ulkoisestiKyllä
OKM-julkaisutyyppiA1 Alkuperäisartikkeli tieteellisessä aikakauslehdessä, vertaisarvioitu

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