Climate Change Mitigation through Increased Wood Use in the European Construction Sector -Towards an Integrated Modelling Framework

Ljusk-Ola Eriksson, Leif Gustavsson, Riitta Hänninen, Maarit Kallio, Henna Lyhykäinen, Kim Pingoud, Johanna Pohjola, Roger Sathre, Birger Solberg, Jarle Svanaes, Lauri Valsta

Tutkimustuotos: ArtikkelijulkaisuArtikkeliTieteellinenvertaisarvioitu

Kuvaus

Using wood as a building material affects the carbon balance through several mechanisms. This paper describes a modelling approach that integrates a wood product substitution model, a global partial equilibrium model, a regional forest model and a stand-level model. Three different scenarios were compared with a business-as-usual scenario over a 23-year period (2008–2030). Two scenarios assumed an additional one million apartment flats per year will be built of wood instead of non-wood materials by 2030. These scenarios had little effect on markets and forest management and reduced annual carbon emissions by 0.2–0.5% of the total 1990 European GHG emissions. However, the scenarios are associated with high specific CO2 emission reductions per unit of wood used. The third scenario, an extreme assumption that all European countries will consume 1-m3 sawn wood per capita by 2030, had large effects on carbon emission, volumes and trade flows. The price changes of this scenario, however, also affected forest management in ways that greatly deviated from the partial equilibrium model projections. Our results suggest that increased wood construction will have a minor impact on forest management and forest carbon stocks. To analyse larger perturbations on the demand side, a market equilibrium model seems crucial. However, for that analytical system to work properly, the market and forest regional models must be better synchronized than here, in particular regarding assumptions on timber supply behaviour. Also, bioenergy as a commodity in market and forest models needs to be considered to study new market developments; those modules are currently missing.
Alkuperäiskielienglanti
LehtiEuropean Journal of Forest Research
Vuosikerta131
Numero1
Sivut131-144
Sivumäärä14
ISSN1612-4669
DOI - pysyväislinkit
TilaJulkaistu - 2012
OKM-julkaisutyyppiA1 Alkuperäisartikkeli tieteellisessä aikakauslehdessä, vertaisarvioitu

Tieteenalat

  • 4112 Metsätiede

Lainaa tätä

Eriksson, Ljusk-Ola ; Gustavsson, Leif ; Hänninen, Riitta ; Kallio, Maarit ; Lyhykäinen, Henna ; Pingoud, Kim ; Pohjola, Johanna ; Sathre, Roger ; Solberg, Birger ; Svanaes, Jarle ; Valsta, Lauri. / Climate Change Mitigation through Increased Wood Use in the European Construction Sector -Towards an Integrated Modelling Framework. Julkaisussa: European Journal of Forest Research. 2012 ; Vuosikerta 131, Nro 1. Sivut 131-144.
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title = "Climate Change Mitigation through Increased Wood Use in the European Construction Sector -Towards an Integrated Modelling Framework",
abstract = "Using wood as a building material affects the carbon balance through several mechanisms. This paper describes a modelling approach that integrates a wood product substitution model, a global partial equilibrium model, a regional forest model and a stand-level model. Three different scenarios were compared with a business-as-usual scenario over a 23-year period (2008–2030). Two scenarios assumed an additional one million apartment flats per year will be built of wood instead of non-wood materials by 2030. These scenarios had little effect on markets and forest management and reduced annual carbon emissions by 0.2–0.5{\%} of the total 1990 European GHG emissions. However, the scenarios are associated with high specific CO2 emission reductions per unit of wood used. The third scenario, an extreme assumption that all European countries will consume 1-m3 sawn wood per capita by 2030, had large effects on carbon emission, volumes and trade flows. The price changes of this scenario, however, also affected forest management in ways that greatly deviated from the partial equilibrium model projections. Our results suggest that increased wood construction will have a minor impact on forest management and forest carbon stocks. To analyse larger perturbations on the demand side, a market equilibrium model seems crucial. However, for that analytical system to work properly, the market and forest regional models must be better synchronized than here, in particular regarding assumptions on timber supply behaviour. Also, bioenergy as a commodity in market and forest models needs to be considered to study new market developments; those modules are currently missing.",
keywords = "4112 Forestry",
author = "Ljusk-Ola Eriksson and Leif Gustavsson and Riitta H{\"a}nninen and Maarit Kallio and Henna Lyhyk{\"a}inen and Kim Pingoud and Johanna Pohjola and Roger Sathre and Birger Solberg and Jarle Svanaes and Lauri Valsta",
year = "2012",
doi = "10.1007/s10342-010-0463-3",
language = "English",
volume = "131",
pages = "131--144",
journal = "European Journal of Forest Research",
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}

Eriksson, L-O, Gustavsson, L, Hänninen, R, Kallio, M, Lyhykäinen, H, Pingoud, K, Pohjola, J, Sathre, R, Solberg, B, Svanaes, J & Valsta, L 2012, 'Climate Change Mitigation through Increased Wood Use in the European Construction Sector -Towards an Integrated Modelling Framework', European Journal of Forest Research, Vuosikerta 131, Nro 1, Sivut 131-144. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10342-010-0463-3

Climate Change Mitigation through Increased Wood Use in the European Construction Sector -Towards an Integrated Modelling Framework. / Eriksson, Ljusk-Ola; Gustavsson, Leif; Hänninen, Riitta; Kallio, Maarit; Lyhykäinen, Henna; Pingoud, Kim; Pohjola, Johanna; Sathre, Roger; Solberg, Birger; Svanaes, Jarle ; Valsta, Lauri.

julkaisussa: European Journal of Forest Research, Vuosikerta 131, Nro 1, 2012, s. 131-144.

Tutkimustuotos: ArtikkelijulkaisuArtikkeliTieteellinenvertaisarvioitu

TY - JOUR

T1 - Climate Change Mitigation through Increased Wood Use in the European Construction Sector -Towards an Integrated Modelling Framework

AU - Eriksson, Ljusk-Ola

AU - Gustavsson, Leif

AU - Hänninen, Riitta

AU - Kallio, Maarit

AU - Lyhykäinen, Henna

AU - Pingoud, Kim

AU - Pohjola, Johanna

AU - Sathre, Roger

AU - Solberg, Birger

AU - Svanaes, Jarle

AU - Valsta, Lauri

PY - 2012

Y1 - 2012

N2 - Using wood as a building material affects the carbon balance through several mechanisms. This paper describes a modelling approach that integrates a wood product substitution model, a global partial equilibrium model, a regional forest model and a stand-level model. Three different scenarios were compared with a business-as-usual scenario over a 23-year period (2008–2030). Two scenarios assumed an additional one million apartment flats per year will be built of wood instead of non-wood materials by 2030. These scenarios had little effect on markets and forest management and reduced annual carbon emissions by 0.2–0.5% of the total 1990 European GHG emissions. However, the scenarios are associated with high specific CO2 emission reductions per unit of wood used. The third scenario, an extreme assumption that all European countries will consume 1-m3 sawn wood per capita by 2030, had large effects on carbon emission, volumes and trade flows. The price changes of this scenario, however, also affected forest management in ways that greatly deviated from the partial equilibrium model projections. Our results suggest that increased wood construction will have a minor impact on forest management and forest carbon stocks. To analyse larger perturbations on the demand side, a market equilibrium model seems crucial. However, for that analytical system to work properly, the market and forest regional models must be better synchronized than here, in particular regarding assumptions on timber supply behaviour. Also, bioenergy as a commodity in market and forest models needs to be considered to study new market developments; those modules are currently missing.

AB - Using wood as a building material affects the carbon balance through several mechanisms. This paper describes a modelling approach that integrates a wood product substitution model, a global partial equilibrium model, a regional forest model and a stand-level model. Three different scenarios were compared with a business-as-usual scenario over a 23-year period (2008–2030). Two scenarios assumed an additional one million apartment flats per year will be built of wood instead of non-wood materials by 2030. These scenarios had little effect on markets and forest management and reduced annual carbon emissions by 0.2–0.5% of the total 1990 European GHG emissions. However, the scenarios are associated with high specific CO2 emission reductions per unit of wood used. The third scenario, an extreme assumption that all European countries will consume 1-m3 sawn wood per capita by 2030, had large effects on carbon emission, volumes and trade flows. The price changes of this scenario, however, also affected forest management in ways that greatly deviated from the partial equilibrium model projections. Our results suggest that increased wood construction will have a minor impact on forest management and forest carbon stocks. To analyse larger perturbations on the demand side, a market equilibrium model seems crucial. However, for that analytical system to work properly, the market and forest regional models must be better synchronized than here, in particular regarding assumptions on timber supply behaviour. Also, bioenergy as a commodity in market and forest models needs to be considered to study new market developments; those modules are currently missing.

KW - 4112 Forestry

U2 - 10.1007/s10342-010-0463-3

DO - 10.1007/s10342-010-0463-3

M3 - Article

VL - 131

SP - 131

EP - 144

JO - European Journal of Forest Research

JF - European Journal of Forest Research

SN - 1612-4669

IS - 1

ER -