Kuvaus
exploratory scenario method and Bayesian belief networks (BBN) to analyse the sustainability of commercial Baltic herring and salmon fisheries in 2040. First, following the matrix logic approach, two critically uncertain driving forces were identified to build a scenario cross. These were 1) whether governance in the EU is integrated or fragmented, and 2) whether environmental awareness and engagement in the Baltic Sea region is high or low. Four contrasting storylines for the future of Baltic herring and salmon fisheries (Inequality, Transformation to sustainability, Transformation to protectionism, and Business-as-usual) were created based on the identified driving forces and elements, and their respective causal links. Second, the storylines were formulated as a Bayesian influence diagram to quantify and analyse the impacts of the driving forces to the social-ecological system and ultimately achieving the fisheries management objectives, including ecological, social and economic sustainability, and increasing fisheries contribution to food security and safety. The BBN presented in this paper is an artificial intelligence tool to help in thinking the complex future scenarios in a systemic way. This type of systematic futures thinking could potentially increase the ability of the fisheries governance systems to deal with unfavourable or unexpected future developments.
| Alkuperäiskieli | englanti |
|---|---|
| Sivumäärä | 1 |
| Tila | Julkaistu - marraskuuta 2017 |
| Tapahtuma | RISK 2017 - Society for Risk Analysis (SRA) 3rd Nordic Chapter Conference - Espoo, Suomi Kesto: 2 marraskuuta 2017 → 3 marraskuuta 2017 |
Konferenssi
| Konferenssi | RISK 2017 - Society for Risk Analysis (SRA) 3rd Nordic Chapter Conference |
|---|---|
| Maa | Suomi |
| Kaupunki | Espoo |
| Ajanjakso | 02/11/2017 → 03/11/2017 |
Tieteenalat
- 1172 Ympäristötiede
Lainaa tätä
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Combining exploratory scenarios and Bayesian belief networks to analyse the sustainability of Baltic herring and salmon fisheries. / Pihlajamäki, Mia; Lehikoinen, Annukka Maaria; Haapasaari, Päivi Elisabet; Sarkki, Simo.
2017. Abstraktin lähde: RISK 2017 - Society for Risk Analysis (SRA) 3rd Nordic Chapter Conference, Espoo, Suomi.Tutkimustuotos: Konferenssimateriaalit › Konferenssiabstrakti
TY - CONF
T1 - Combining exploratory scenarios and Bayesian belief networks to analyse the sustainability of Baltic herring and salmon fisheries
AU - Pihlajamäki, Mia
AU - Lehikoinen, Annukka Maaria
AU - Haapasaari, Päivi Elisabet
AU - Sarkki, Simo
PY - 2017/11
Y1 - 2017/11
N2 - Exploratory scenario method is often used in planning for long-term sustainable use of environmental resources. Exploratory scenarios are plausible and relevant storylines on how the future might unfold. This paper combines exploratory scenario method and Bayesian belief networks (BBN) to analyse the sustainability of commercial Baltic herring and salmon fisheries in 2040. First, following the matrix logic approach, two critically uncertain driving forces were identified to build a scenario cross. These were 1) whether governance in the EU is integrated or fragmented, and 2) whether environmental awareness and engagement in the Baltic Sea region is high or low. Four contrasting storylines for the future of Baltic herring and salmon fisheries (Inequality, Transformation to sustainability, Transformation to protectionism, and Business-as-usual) were created based on the identified driving forces and elements, and their respective causal links. Second, the storylines were formulated as a Bayesian influence diagram to quantify and analyse the impacts of the driving forces to the social-ecological system and ultimately achieving the fisheries management objectives, including ecological, social and economic sustainability, and increasing fisheries contribution to food security and safety. The BBN presented in this paper is an artificial intelligence tool to help in thinking the complex future scenarios in a systemic way. This type of systematic futures thinking could potentially increase the ability of the fisheries governance systems to deal with unfavourable or unexpected future developments.
AB - Exploratory scenario method is often used in planning for long-term sustainable use of environmental resources. Exploratory scenarios are plausible and relevant storylines on how the future might unfold. This paper combines exploratory scenario method and Bayesian belief networks (BBN) to analyse the sustainability of commercial Baltic herring and salmon fisheries in 2040. First, following the matrix logic approach, two critically uncertain driving forces were identified to build a scenario cross. These were 1) whether governance in the EU is integrated or fragmented, and 2) whether environmental awareness and engagement in the Baltic Sea region is high or low. Four contrasting storylines for the future of Baltic herring and salmon fisheries (Inequality, Transformation to sustainability, Transformation to protectionism, and Business-as-usual) were created based on the identified driving forces and elements, and their respective causal links. Second, the storylines were formulated as a Bayesian influence diagram to quantify and analyse the impacts of the driving forces to the social-ecological system and ultimately achieving the fisheries management objectives, including ecological, social and economic sustainability, and increasing fisheries contribution to food security and safety. The BBN presented in this paper is an artificial intelligence tool to help in thinking the complex future scenarios in a systemic way. This type of systematic futures thinking could potentially increase the ability of the fisheries governance systems to deal with unfavourable or unexpected future developments.
KW - 1172 Environmental sciences
M3 - Abstract
ER -