Conservation of grassland butterflies in Finland under a changing climate

Anna Tainio, Risto K. Heikkinen, Janne Heliölä, Alistair Hunt, Paul Watkiss, Stefan Fronzek, Niko Leikola, Sanna Lötjönen, Olga Mashkina, Timothy R. Carter

Tutkimustuotos: ArtikkelijulkaisuArtikkeliTieteellinenvertaisarvioitu

Kuvaus

This paper examines the potential impact of climate change on grassland butterfly species in Finland. It combines multiple climate change scenarios and different impact models for bioclimatic suitability to capture multi-faceted aspects of uncertainty. It also evaluates alternative options to enhance the adaptation of grassland biodiversity. Due to the long-term decline of semi-natural grasslands, their current extent in Finland is much lower than the minimum level estimated to ensure the survival of butterfly species. Projected locations of the climatically most suitable areas for butterfly species varied considerably between different modelling techniques and climate change scenarios. This uncertainty needs to be taken into account in planning adaptation responses. Analysis of potential adaptation options considered the promotion of existing measures based on the agri-environmental scheme (AES), as well as new measures, including species translocation and dispersal corridors. Current AES options were compared using a cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA). The CEA results indicated that buffer zones are the most cost-effective AES measure, although environmental fallows and buffer zones had broadly similar cost-effectiveness. The cost of translocation was relatively modest compared to that of dispersal corridors, due to the high number of habitat stepping stones required along potential dispersal corridors. A questionnaire survey of Finnish farmers revealed that a third of the respondents supported increases in nature conservation. Thus, large increases of the uptake of biodiversity-related AES measures among farmers may prove to be difficult. Given the small areas currently assigned for such measures, the prospects for the adaptation of grassland butterflies to climate change in Finland appear unfavourable.
Alkuperäiskielienglanti
LehtiRegional Environmental Change
Vuosikerta16
Numero1
Sivut71-84
Sivumäärä14
ISSN1436-3798
DOI - pysyväislinkit
TilaJulkaistu - 2016
OKM-julkaisutyyppiA1 Alkuperäisartikkeli tieteellisessä aikakauslehdessä, vertaisarvioitu

Tieteenalat

  • 1172 Ympäristötiede

Lainaa tätä

Tainio, A., Heikkinen, R. K., Heliölä, J., Hunt, A., Watkiss, P., Fronzek, S., ... Carter, T. R. (2016). Conservation of grassland butterflies in Finland under a changing climate. Regional Environmental Change, 16(1), 71-84. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-014-0684-y
Tainio, Anna ; Heikkinen, Risto K. ; Heliölä, Janne ; Hunt, Alistair ; Watkiss, Paul ; Fronzek, Stefan ; Leikola, Niko ; Lötjönen, Sanna ; Mashkina, Olga ; Carter, Timothy R. / Conservation of grassland butterflies in Finland under a changing climate. Julkaisussa: Regional Environmental Change. 2016 ; Vuosikerta 16, Nro 1. Sivut 71-84.
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title = "Conservation of grassland butterflies in Finland under a changing climate",
abstract = "This paper examines the potential impact of climate change on grassland butterfly species in Finland. It combines multiple climate change scenarios and different impact models for bioclimatic suitability to capture multi-faceted aspects of uncertainty. It also evaluates alternative options to enhance the adaptation of grassland biodiversity. Due to the long-term decline of semi-natural grasslands, their current extent in Finland is much lower than the minimum level estimated to ensure the survival of butterfly species. Projected locations of the climatically most suitable areas for butterfly species varied considerably between different modelling techniques and climate change scenarios. This uncertainty needs to be taken into account in planning adaptation responses. Analysis of potential adaptation options considered the promotion of existing measures based on the agri-environmental scheme (AES), as well as new measures, including species translocation and dispersal corridors. Current AES options were compared using a cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA). The CEA results indicated that buffer zones are the most cost-effective AES measure, although environmental fallows and buffer zones had broadly similar cost-effectiveness. The cost of translocation was relatively modest compared to that of dispersal corridors, due to the high number of habitat stepping stones required along potential dispersal corridors. A questionnaire survey of Finnish farmers revealed that a third of the respondents supported increases in nature conservation. Thus, large increases of the uptake of biodiversity-related AES measures among farmers may prove to be difficult. Given the small areas currently assigned for such measures, the prospects for the adaptation of grassland butterflies to climate change in Finland appear unfavourable.",
keywords = "1172 Environmental sciences",
author = "Anna Tainio and Heikkinen, {Risto K.} and Janne Heli{\"o}l{\"a} and Alistair Hunt and Paul Watkiss and Stefan Fronzek and Niko Leikola and Sanna L{\"o}tj{\"o}nen and Olga Mashkina and Carter, {Timothy R.}",
year = "2016",
doi = "10.1007/s10113-014-0684-y",
language = "English",
volume = "16",
pages = "71--84",
journal = "Regional Environmental Change",
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Tainio, A, Heikkinen, RK, Heliölä, J, Hunt, A, Watkiss, P, Fronzek, S, Leikola, N, Lötjönen, S, Mashkina, O & Carter, TR 2016, 'Conservation of grassland butterflies in Finland under a changing climate', Regional Environmental Change, Vuosikerta 16, Nro 1, Sivut 71-84. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-014-0684-y

Conservation of grassland butterflies in Finland under a changing climate. / Tainio, Anna; Heikkinen, Risto K.; Heliölä, Janne; Hunt, Alistair; Watkiss, Paul; Fronzek, Stefan; Leikola, Niko; Lötjönen, Sanna ; Mashkina, Olga; Carter, Timothy R.

julkaisussa: Regional Environmental Change, Vuosikerta 16, Nro 1, 2016, s. 71-84.

Tutkimustuotos: ArtikkelijulkaisuArtikkeliTieteellinenvertaisarvioitu

TY - JOUR

T1 - Conservation of grassland butterflies in Finland under a changing climate

AU - Tainio, Anna

AU - Heikkinen, Risto K.

AU - Heliölä, Janne

AU - Hunt, Alistair

AU - Watkiss, Paul

AU - Fronzek, Stefan

AU - Leikola, Niko

AU - Lötjönen, Sanna

AU - Mashkina, Olga

AU - Carter, Timothy R.

PY - 2016

Y1 - 2016

N2 - This paper examines the potential impact of climate change on grassland butterfly species in Finland. It combines multiple climate change scenarios and different impact models for bioclimatic suitability to capture multi-faceted aspects of uncertainty. It also evaluates alternative options to enhance the adaptation of grassland biodiversity. Due to the long-term decline of semi-natural grasslands, their current extent in Finland is much lower than the minimum level estimated to ensure the survival of butterfly species. Projected locations of the climatically most suitable areas for butterfly species varied considerably between different modelling techniques and climate change scenarios. This uncertainty needs to be taken into account in planning adaptation responses. Analysis of potential adaptation options considered the promotion of existing measures based on the agri-environmental scheme (AES), as well as new measures, including species translocation and dispersal corridors. Current AES options were compared using a cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA). The CEA results indicated that buffer zones are the most cost-effective AES measure, although environmental fallows and buffer zones had broadly similar cost-effectiveness. The cost of translocation was relatively modest compared to that of dispersal corridors, due to the high number of habitat stepping stones required along potential dispersal corridors. A questionnaire survey of Finnish farmers revealed that a third of the respondents supported increases in nature conservation. Thus, large increases of the uptake of biodiversity-related AES measures among farmers may prove to be difficult. Given the small areas currently assigned for such measures, the prospects for the adaptation of grassland butterflies to climate change in Finland appear unfavourable.

AB - This paper examines the potential impact of climate change on grassland butterfly species in Finland. It combines multiple climate change scenarios and different impact models for bioclimatic suitability to capture multi-faceted aspects of uncertainty. It also evaluates alternative options to enhance the adaptation of grassland biodiversity. Due to the long-term decline of semi-natural grasslands, their current extent in Finland is much lower than the minimum level estimated to ensure the survival of butterfly species. Projected locations of the climatically most suitable areas for butterfly species varied considerably between different modelling techniques and climate change scenarios. This uncertainty needs to be taken into account in planning adaptation responses. Analysis of potential adaptation options considered the promotion of existing measures based on the agri-environmental scheme (AES), as well as new measures, including species translocation and dispersal corridors. Current AES options were compared using a cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA). The CEA results indicated that buffer zones are the most cost-effective AES measure, although environmental fallows and buffer zones had broadly similar cost-effectiveness. The cost of translocation was relatively modest compared to that of dispersal corridors, due to the high number of habitat stepping stones required along potential dispersal corridors. A questionnaire survey of Finnish farmers revealed that a third of the respondents supported increases in nature conservation. Thus, large increases of the uptake of biodiversity-related AES measures among farmers may prove to be difficult. Given the small areas currently assigned for such measures, the prospects for the adaptation of grassland butterflies to climate change in Finland appear unfavourable.

KW - 1172 Environmental sciences

U2 - 10.1007/s10113-014-0684-y

DO - 10.1007/s10113-014-0684-y

M3 - Article

VL - 16

SP - 71

EP - 84

JO - Regional Environmental Change

JF - Regional Environmental Change

SN - 1436-3798

IS - 1

ER -