Decomposing sources of uncertainty in climate change projections of boreal forest primary production

Tuomo Kalliokoski, Annikki Makela, Stefan Fronzek, Francesco Minunno, Mikko Peltoniemi

Tutkimustuotos: ArtikkelijulkaisuArtikkeliTieteellinenvertaisarvioitu

Kuvaus

We are bound to large uncertainties when considering impacts of climate change on forest productivity. Studies formally acknowledging and determining the relative importance of different sources of this uncertainty are still scarce, although the choice of the climate scenario, and e.g. the assumption of the CO2 effects on tree water use can easily result in contradicting conclusions of future forest productivity. In a large scale, forest productivity is primarily driven by two large fluxes, gross primary production (GPP), which is the source for all carbon in forest ecosystems, and heterotrophic respiration. Here we show how uncertainty of GPP projections of Finnish boreal forests divides between input, mechanistic and parametric uncertainty. We used the simple semi-empirical stand GPP and water balance model PRELES with an ensemble of downscaled global circulation model (GCM) projections for the 21st century under different emissions and forcing scenarios (both RCP and SRES). We also evaluated the sensitivity of assumptions of the relationships between atmospheric CO2 concentration (C-a), photosynthesis and water use of trees. Even mean changes in climate projections of different meteorological variables for Finland were so high that it is likely that the primary productivity of forests will increase by the end of the century. The scale of productivity change largely depends on the long-term C-a fertilization effect on GPP and transpiration. However, GCM variability was the major source of uncertainty until 2060, after which emission scenario/pathway became the dominant factor. Large uncertainties with a wide range of projections can make it more difficult to draw ecologically meaningful conclusions especially on the local to regional scales, yet a thorough assessment of uncertainties is important for drawing robust conclusions.
Alkuperäiskielienglanti
LehtiAgricultural and Forest Meteorology
Vuosikerta262
Sivut192-205
Sivumäärä14
ISSN0168-1923
DOI - pysyväislinkit
TilaJulkaistu - 15 marraskuuta 2018
OKM-julkaisutyyppiA1 Alkuperäisartikkeli tieteellisessä aikakauslehdessä, vertaisarvioitu

Tieteenalat

  • 1172 Ympäristötiede
  • 4112 Metsätiede
  • PHOTOSYNTHETIC EFFICIENCY
  • Ecosystem response
  • environmental change
  • ecophysiology

Lainaa tätä

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title = "Decomposing sources of uncertainty in climate change projections of boreal forest primary production",
abstract = "We are bound to large uncertainties when considering impacts of climate change on forest productivity. Studies formally acknowledging and determining the relative importance of different sources of this uncertainty are still scarce, although the choice of the climate scenario, and e.g. the assumption of the CO2 effects on tree water use can easily result in contradicting conclusions of future forest productivity. In a large scale, forest productivity is primarily driven by two large fluxes, gross primary production (GPP), which is the source for all carbon in forest ecosystems, and heterotrophic respiration. Here we show how uncertainty of GPP projections of Finnish boreal forests divides between input, mechanistic and parametric uncertainty. We used the simple semi-empirical stand GPP and water balance model PRELES with an ensemble of downscaled global circulation model (GCM) projections for the 21st century under different emissions and forcing scenarios (both RCP and SRES). We also evaluated the sensitivity of assumptions of the relationships between atmospheric CO2 concentration (C-a), photosynthesis and water use of trees. Even mean changes in climate projections of different meteorological variables for Finland were so high that it is likely that the primary productivity of forests will increase by the end of the century. The scale of productivity change largely depends on the long-term C-a fertilization effect on GPP and transpiration. However, GCM variability was the major source of uncertainty until 2060, after which emission scenario/pathway became the dominant factor. Large uncertainties with a wide range of projections can make it more difficult to draw ecologically meaningful conclusions especially on the local to regional scales, yet a thorough assessment of uncertainties is important for drawing robust conclusions.",
keywords = "Photosynthetic efficiency, Ecosystem response, Environmental change, Ecophysiology, GROSS PRIMARY PRODUCTION, SCOTS PINE, DIFFERENTIAL EVOLUTION, GLOBAL CLIMATE, CARBON-DIOXIDE, USE EFFICIENCY, CO2, NITROGEN, MODEL, FINLAND, 1172 Environmental sciences, 4112 Forestry, PHOTOSYNTHETIC EFFICIENCY, Ecosystem response, environmental change, ecophysiology",
author = "Tuomo Kalliokoski and Annikki Makela and Stefan Fronzek and Francesco Minunno and Mikko Peltoniemi",
year = "2018",
month = "11",
day = "15",
doi = "10.1016/j.agrformet.2018.06.030",
language = "English",
volume = "262",
pages = "192--205",
journal = "Agricultural and Forest Meteorology",
issn = "0168-1923",
publisher = "Elsevier Scientific Publ. Co",

}

Decomposing sources of uncertainty in climate change projections of boreal forest primary production. / Kalliokoski, Tuomo; Makela, Annikki; Fronzek, Stefan; Minunno, Francesco; Peltoniemi, Mikko.

julkaisussa: Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Vuosikerta 262, 15.11.2018, s. 192-205.

Tutkimustuotos: ArtikkelijulkaisuArtikkeliTieteellinenvertaisarvioitu

TY - JOUR

T1 - Decomposing sources of uncertainty in climate change projections of boreal forest primary production

AU - Kalliokoski, Tuomo

AU - Makela, Annikki

AU - Fronzek, Stefan

AU - Minunno, Francesco

AU - Peltoniemi, Mikko

PY - 2018/11/15

Y1 - 2018/11/15

N2 - We are bound to large uncertainties when considering impacts of climate change on forest productivity. Studies formally acknowledging and determining the relative importance of different sources of this uncertainty are still scarce, although the choice of the climate scenario, and e.g. the assumption of the CO2 effects on tree water use can easily result in contradicting conclusions of future forest productivity. In a large scale, forest productivity is primarily driven by two large fluxes, gross primary production (GPP), which is the source for all carbon in forest ecosystems, and heterotrophic respiration. Here we show how uncertainty of GPP projections of Finnish boreal forests divides between input, mechanistic and parametric uncertainty. We used the simple semi-empirical stand GPP and water balance model PRELES with an ensemble of downscaled global circulation model (GCM) projections for the 21st century under different emissions and forcing scenarios (both RCP and SRES). We also evaluated the sensitivity of assumptions of the relationships between atmospheric CO2 concentration (C-a), photosynthesis and water use of trees. Even mean changes in climate projections of different meteorological variables for Finland were so high that it is likely that the primary productivity of forests will increase by the end of the century. The scale of productivity change largely depends on the long-term C-a fertilization effect on GPP and transpiration. However, GCM variability was the major source of uncertainty until 2060, after which emission scenario/pathway became the dominant factor. Large uncertainties with a wide range of projections can make it more difficult to draw ecologically meaningful conclusions especially on the local to regional scales, yet a thorough assessment of uncertainties is important for drawing robust conclusions.

AB - We are bound to large uncertainties when considering impacts of climate change on forest productivity. Studies formally acknowledging and determining the relative importance of different sources of this uncertainty are still scarce, although the choice of the climate scenario, and e.g. the assumption of the CO2 effects on tree water use can easily result in contradicting conclusions of future forest productivity. In a large scale, forest productivity is primarily driven by two large fluxes, gross primary production (GPP), which is the source for all carbon in forest ecosystems, and heterotrophic respiration. Here we show how uncertainty of GPP projections of Finnish boreal forests divides between input, mechanistic and parametric uncertainty. We used the simple semi-empirical stand GPP and water balance model PRELES with an ensemble of downscaled global circulation model (GCM) projections for the 21st century under different emissions and forcing scenarios (both RCP and SRES). We also evaluated the sensitivity of assumptions of the relationships between atmospheric CO2 concentration (C-a), photosynthesis and water use of trees. Even mean changes in climate projections of different meteorological variables for Finland were so high that it is likely that the primary productivity of forests will increase by the end of the century. The scale of productivity change largely depends on the long-term C-a fertilization effect on GPP and transpiration. However, GCM variability was the major source of uncertainty until 2060, after which emission scenario/pathway became the dominant factor. Large uncertainties with a wide range of projections can make it more difficult to draw ecologically meaningful conclusions especially on the local to regional scales, yet a thorough assessment of uncertainties is important for drawing robust conclusions.

KW - Photosynthetic efficiency

KW - Ecosystem response

KW - Environmental change

KW - Ecophysiology

KW - GROSS PRIMARY PRODUCTION

KW - SCOTS PINE

KW - DIFFERENTIAL EVOLUTION

KW - GLOBAL CLIMATE

KW - CARBON-DIOXIDE

KW - USE EFFICIENCY

KW - CO2

KW - NITROGEN

KW - MODEL

KW - FINLAND

KW - 1172 Environmental sciences

KW - 4112 Forestry

KW - PHOTOSYNTHETIC EFFICIENCY

KW - Ecosystem response

KW - environmental change

KW - ecophysiology

U2 - 10.1016/j.agrformet.2018.06.030

DO - 10.1016/j.agrformet.2018.06.030

M3 - Article

VL - 262

SP - 192

EP - 205

JO - Agricultural and Forest Meteorology

JF - Agricultural and Forest Meteorology

SN - 0168-1923

ER -