Degrading permafrost puts Arctic infrastructure at risk by mid-century

Jan Hjort, Olli Karjalainen, Juha Antero Aalto, Sebastian Westermann, Vladimir Romanovsky, Frederick Nelson, Bernd Etzelmüller, Miska Luoto

Tutkimustuotos: ArtikkelijulkaisuArtikkeliTieteellinenvertaisarvioitu

Abstrakti

Degradation of near-surface permafrost can pose a serious threat to the utilization of natural resources, and to the sustainable development of Arctic communities. Here we identify at unprecedentedly high spatial resolution infrastructure hazard areas in the Northern Hemisphere's permafrost regions under projected climatic changes and quantify fundamental engineering structures at risk by 2050. We show that nearly four million people and 70% of current infrastructure in the permafrost domain are in areas with high potential for thaw of near-surface permafrost. Our results demonstrate that one-third of pan-Arctic infrastructure and 45% of the hydrocarbon extraction fields in the Russian Arctic are in regions where thaw-related ground instability can cause severe damage to the built environment. Alarmingly, these figures are not reduced substantially even if the climate change targets of the Paris Agreement are reached.

Alkuperäiskielienglanti
Artikkeli5147
LehtiNature Communications
Vuosikerta9
Sivumäärä9
ISSN2041-1723
DOI - pysyväislinkit
TilaJulkaistu - 12 joulukuuta 2018
OKM-julkaisutyyppiA1 Alkuperäisartikkeli tieteellisessä aikakauslehdessä, vertaisarvioitu

Tieteenalat

  • 1172 Ympäristötiede

Projektit

Topoclimate, land surface conditions and atmospheric feedbacks

Aalto, J.

01/09/201731/08/2020

Projekti: Tutkimusprojekti

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