Downscaling and extrapolating dynamic seasonal marine forecasts for coastal ocean users

Jarno Petteri Vanhatalo, Alistari J. Hobday, L. Richard Little, Claire M. Spillman

Tutkimustuotos: ArtikkelijulkaisuArtikkeliTieteellinenvertaisarvioitu

Kuvaus

Marine weather and climate forecasts are essential in planning strategies and activities on a range of temporal and spatial scales. However, seasonal dynamical forecast models, that provide forecasts in monthly scale, often have low offshore resolution and limited information for inshore coastal areas. Hence, there is increasing demand for methods capable of fine scale seasonal forecasts covering coastal waters. Here, we have developed a method to combine observational data with dynamical forecasts from POAMA (Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia; Australian Bureau of Meteorology) in order to produce seasonal downscaled, corrected forecasts, extrapolated to include inshore regions that POAMA does not cover. We demonstrate the method in forecasting the monthly sea surface temperature anomalies in the Great Australian Bight (GAB) region. The resolution of POAMA in the GAB is approximately 2° × 1° (lon. × lat.) and the resolution of our downscaled forecast is approximately 1° × 0.25°. We use data and model hindcasts for the period 1994–2010 for forecast validation. The predictive performance of our statistical downscaling model improves on the original POAMA forecast. Additionally, this statistical downscaling model extrapolates forecasts to coastal regions not covered by POAMA and its forecasts are probabilistic which allows straightforward assessment of uncertainty in downscaling and prediction. A range of marine users will benefit from access to downscaled and nearshore forecasts at seasonal timescales.
Alkuperäiskielienglanti
LehtiOcean Modelling
Vuosikerta100
Sivut20-30
Sivumäärä11
ISSN1463-5003
DOI - pysyväislinkit
TilaJulkaistu - huhtikuuta 2016
OKM-julkaisutyyppiA1 Alkuperäisartikkeli tieteellisessä aikakauslehdessä, vertaisarvioitu

Tieteenalat

  • 1172 Ympäristötiede

Lainaa tätä

Vanhatalo, Jarno Petteri ; Hobday, Alistari J. ; Little, L. Richard ; Spillman, Claire M. / Downscaling and extrapolating dynamic seasonal marine forecasts for coastal ocean users. Julkaisussa: Ocean Modelling. 2016 ; Vuosikerta 100. Sivut 20-30.
@article{ff387c428cad4393b42fa4757c4fb28e,
title = "Downscaling and extrapolating dynamic seasonal marine forecasts for coastal ocean users",
abstract = "Marine weather and climate forecasts are essential in planning strategies and activities on a range of temporal and spatial scales. However, seasonal dynamical forecast models, that provide forecasts in monthly scale, often have low offshore resolution and limited information for inshore coastal areas. Hence, there is increasing demand for methods capable of fine scale seasonal forecasts covering coastal waters. Here, we have developed a method to combine observational data with dynamical forecasts from POAMA (Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia; Australian Bureau of Meteorology) in order to produce seasonal downscaled, corrected forecasts, extrapolated to include inshore regions that POAMA does not cover. We demonstrate the method in forecasting the monthly sea surface temperature anomalies in the Great Australian Bight (GAB) region. The resolution of POAMA in the GAB is approximately 2° × 1° (lon. × lat.) and the resolution of our downscaled forecast is approximately 1° × 0.25°. We use data and model hindcasts for the period 1994–2010 for forecast validation. The predictive performance of our statistical downscaling model improves on the original POAMA forecast. Additionally, this statistical downscaling model extrapolates forecasts to coastal regions not covered by POAMA and its forecasts are probabilistic which allows straightforward assessment of uncertainty in downscaling and prediction. A range of marine users will benefit from access to downscaled and nearshore forecasts at seasonal timescales.",
keywords = "1172 Environmental sciences, POAMA, Seasonal forecast, Statistical downscaling, Coastal extrapolation, Great Australian Right, Gaussian process, TUNA THUNNUS-MACCOYII, AUSTRALIA SOUTHERN SHELVES, SPATIAL MANAGEMENT, STOCK ASSESSMENT, CLIMATE-CHANGE, HABITAT, MODEL, REEF, PREDICTIONS, SYSTEM",
author = "Vanhatalo, {Jarno Petteri} and Hobday, {Alistari J.} and Little, {L. Richard} and Spillman, {Claire M.}",
year = "2016",
month = "4",
doi = "10.1016/j.ocemod.2016.01.004",
language = "English",
volume = "100",
pages = "20--30",
journal = "Ocean Modelling",
issn = "1463-5003",
publisher = "Elsevier Scientific Publ. Co",

}

Downscaling and extrapolating dynamic seasonal marine forecasts for coastal ocean users. / Vanhatalo, Jarno Petteri; Hobday, Alistari J.; Little, L. Richard; Spillman, Claire M.

julkaisussa: Ocean Modelling, Vuosikerta 100, 04.2016, s. 20-30.

Tutkimustuotos: ArtikkelijulkaisuArtikkeliTieteellinenvertaisarvioitu

TY - JOUR

T1 - Downscaling and extrapolating dynamic seasonal marine forecasts for coastal ocean users

AU - Vanhatalo, Jarno Petteri

AU - Hobday, Alistari J.

AU - Little, L. Richard

AU - Spillman, Claire M.

PY - 2016/4

Y1 - 2016/4

N2 - Marine weather and climate forecasts are essential in planning strategies and activities on a range of temporal and spatial scales. However, seasonal dynamical forecast models, that provide forecasts in monthly scale, often have low offshore resolution and limited information for inshore coastal areas. Hence, there is increasing demand for methods capable of fine scale seasonal forecasts covering coastal waters. Here, we have developed a method to combine observational data with dynamical forecasts from POAMA (Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia; Australian Bureau of Meteorology) in order to produce seasonal downscaled, corrected forecasts, extrapolated to include inshore regions that POAMA does not cover. We demonstrate the method in forecasting the monthly sea surface temperature anomalies in the Great Australian Bight (GAB) region. The resolution of POAMA in the GAB is approximately 2° × 1° (lon. × lat.) and the resolution of our downscaled forecast is approximately 1° × 0.25°. We use data and model hindcasts for the period 1994–2010 for forecast validation. The predictive performance of our statistical downscaling model improves on the original POAMA forecast. Additionally, this statistical downscaling model extrapolates forecasts to coastal regions not covered by POAMA and its forecasts are probabilistic which allows straightforward assessment of uncertainty in downscaling and prediction. A range of marine users will benefit from access to downscaled and nearshore forecasts at seasonal timescales.

AB - Marine weather and climate forecasts are essential in planning strategies and activities on a range of temporal and spatial scales. However, seasonal dynamical forecast models, that provide forecasts in monthly scale, often have low offshore resolution and limited information for inshore coastal areas. Hence, there is increasing demand for methods capable of fine scale seasonal forecasts covering coastal waters. Here, we have developed a method to combine observational data with dynamical forecasts from POAMA (Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia; Australian Bureau of Meteorology) in order to produce seasonal downscaled, corrected forecasts, extrapolated to include inshore regions that POAMA does not cover. We demonstrate the method in forecasting the monthly sea surface temperature anomalies in the Great Australian Bight (GAB) region. The resolution of POAMA in the GAB is approximately 2° × 1° (lon. × lat.) and the resolution of our downscaled forecast is approximately 1° × 0.25°. We use data and model hindcasts for the period 1994–2010 for forecast validation. The predictive performance of our statistical downscaling model improves on the original POAMA forecast. Additionally, this statistical downscaling model extrapolates forecasts to coastal regions not covered by POAMA and its forecasts are probabilistic which allows straightforward assessment of uncertainty in downscaling and prediction. A range of marine users will benefit from access to downscaled and nearshore forecasts at seasonal timescales.

KW - 1172 Environmental sciences

KW - POAMA

KW - Seasonal forecast

KW - Statistical downscaling

KW - Coastal extrapolation

KW - Great Australian Right

KW - Gaussian process

KW - TUNA THUNNUS-MACCOYII

KW - AUSTRALIA SOUTHERN SHELVES

KW - SPATIAL MANAGEMENT

KW - STOCK ASSESSMENT

KW - CLIMATE-CHANGE

KW - HABITAT

KW - MODEL

KW - REEF

KW - PREDICTIONS

KW - SYSTEM

U2 - 10.1016/j.ocemod.2016.01.004

DO - 10.1016/j.ocemod.2016.01.004

M3 - Article

VL - 100

SP - 20

EP - 30

JO - Ocean Modelling

JF - Ocean Modelling

SN - 1463-5003

ER -