Early-Warning Signals of Individual Tree Mortality Based on Annual Radial Growth

Maxime Cailleret, Vasilis Dakos, Steven Jansen, Elisabeth M.R. Robert, Tuomas Aakala, Mariano M. Amoroso, Joe A. Antos, Christof Bigler, Harald Bugmann, Marco Caccianaga, Jesus-Julio Camarero, Paolo Cherubini, Marie R. Goeya, Katarina Cufar, Adrian J. Das, Hendrik Davi, Guillermo Gea-Izquierdo, Sten Gillner, Laurel J. Haavik, Henrik Hartmann & 28 muut Ana-Maria Heres, Kevin R. Hultine, Pavel Janda, Jeffrey M. Kane, Vlachelsav I. Kharuk, Thomas Kitzberger, Tamir Klein, Tom Levanic, Juan-Carlos Linares, Fabio Lombardi, Harri Mäkinen, Ilona Meszaros, Juha M. Metsaranta, Walter Oberhuber, Andreas Papadopoulos, Any Mary Petritan, Brigitte Rohner, Gabriel Sanguesa-Barreda, Jeremy M. Smith, Amanda B. Stan, Dejan B. Stojanovic, Maria Laura Suarez, Miroslav Svoboda, Volodymyr Trotsiuk, Ricardo Villalba, Alana R. Westwood, Peter H. Wyckoff, Jordi Martinez-Vilalta

Tutkimustuotos: ArtikkelijulkaisuArtikkeliTieteellinenvertaisarvioitu

Kuvaus

Tree mortality is a key driver of forest dynamics and its occurrence is projected to increase in the future due to climate change. Despite recent advances in our understanding of the physiological mechanisms leading to death, we still lack robust indicators of mortality risk that could be applied at the individual tree scale. Here, we build on a previous contribution exploring the differences in growth level between trees that died and survived a given mortality event to assess whether changes in temporal autocorrelation, variance, and synchrony in time-series of annual radial growth data can be used as early warning signals of mortality risk. Taking advantage of a unique global ring-width database of 3065 dead trees and 4389 living trees growing together at 198 sites (belonging to 36 gymnosperm and angiosperm species), we analyzed temporal changes in autocorrelation, variance, and synchrony before tree death (diachronic analysis), and also compared these metrics between trees that died and trees that survived a given mortality event (synchronic analysis). Changes in autocorrelation were a poor indicator of mortality risk. However, we found a gradual increase in inter- annual growth variability and a decrease in growth synchrony in the last similar to 20 years before mortality of gymnosperms, irrespective of the cause of mortality. These changes could be associated with drought-induced alterations in carbon economy and allocation patterns. In angiosperms, we did not find any consistent changes in any metric. Such lack of any signal might be explained by the relatively high capacity of angiosperms to recover after a stress-induced growth decline. Our analysis provides a robust method for estimating early-warning signals of tree mortality based on annual growth data. In addition to the frequently reported decrease in growth rates, an increase in inter-annual growth variability and a decrease in growth synchrony may be powerful predictors of gymnosperm mortality risk, but not necessarily so for angiosperms.
Alkuperäiskielienglanti
Artikkeli1964
LehtiFrontiers in plant science
Vuosikerta9
Sivumäärä14
ISSN1664-462X
DOI - pysyväislinkit
TilaJulkaistu - 8 tammikuuta 2019
OKM-julkaisutyyppiA1 Alkuperäisartikkeli tieteellisessä aikakauslehdessä, vertaisarvioitu

Tieteenalat

  • 4112 Metsätiede

Lainaa tätä

Cailleret, M., Dakos, V., Jansen, S., Robert, E. M. R., Aakala, T., Amoroso, M. M., ... Martinez-Vilalta, J. (2019). Early-Warning Signals of Individual Tree Mortality Based on Annual Radial Growth. Frontiers in plant science, 9, [1964]. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpls.2018.01964
Cailleret, Maxime ; Dakos, Vasilis ; Jansen, Steven ; Robert, Elisabeth M.R. ; Aakala, Tuomas ; Amoroso, Mariano M. ; Antos, Joe A. ; Bigler, Christof ; Bugmann, Harald ; Caccianaga, Marco ; Camarero, Jesus-Julio ; Cherubini, Paolo ; Goeya, Marie R. ; Cufar, Katarina ; Das, Adrian J. ; Davi, Hendrik ; Gea-Izquierdo, Guillermo ; Gillner, Sten ; Haavik, Laurel J. ; Hartmann, Henrik ; Heres, Ana-Maria ; Hultine, Kevin R. ; Janda, Pavel ; Kane, Jeffrey M. ; Kharuk, Vlachelsav I. ; Kitzberger, Thomas ; Klein, Tamir ; Levanic, Tom ; Linares, Juan-Carlos ; Lombardi, Fabio ; Mäkinen, Harri ; Meszaros, Ilona ; Metsaranta, Juha M. ; Oberhuber, Walter ; Papadopoulos, Andreas ; Petritan, Any Mary ; Rohner, Brigitte ; Sanguesa-Barreda, Gabriel ; Smith, Jeremy M. ; Stan, Amanda B. ; Stojanovic, Dejan B. ; Laura Suarez, Maria ; Svoboda, Miroslav ; Trotsiuk, Volodymyr ; Villalba, Ricardo ; Westwood, Alana R. ; Wyckoff, Peter H. ; Martinez-Vilalta, Jordi. / Early-Warning Signals of Individual Tree Mortality Based on Annual Radial Growth. Julkaisussa: Frontiers in plant science. 2019 ; Vuosikerta 9.
@article{2c546527d3924bb7998349c93b6cb824,
title = "Early-Warning Signals of Individual Tree Mortality Based on Annual Radial Growth",
abstract = "Tree mortality is a key driver of forest dynamics and its occurrence is projected to increase in the future due to climate change. Despite recent advances in our understanding of the physiological mechanisms leading to death, we still lack robust indicators of mortality risk that could be applied at the individual tree scale. Here, we build on a previous contribution exploring the differences in growth level between trees that died and survived a given mortality event to assess whether changes in temporal autocorrelation, variance, and synchrony in time-series of annual radial growth data can be used as early warning signals of mortality risk. Taking advantage of a unique global ring-width database of 3065 dead trees and 4389 living trees growing together at 198 sites (belonging to 36 gymnosperm and angiosperm species), we analyzed temporal changes in autocorrelation, variance, and synchrony before tree death (diachronic analysis), and also compared these metrics between trees that died and trees that survived a given mortality event (synchronic analysis). Changes in autocorrelation were a poor indicator of mortality risk. However, we found a gradual increase in inter- annual growth variability and a decrease in growth synchrony in the last similar to 20 years before mortality of gymnosperms, irrespective of the cause of mortality. These changes could be associated with drought-induced alterations in carbon economy and allocation patterns. In angiosperms, we did not find any consistent changes in any metric. Such lack of any signal might be explained by the relatively high capacity of angiosperms to recover after a stress-induced growth decline. Our analysis provides a robust method for estimating early-warning signals of tree mortality based on annual growth data. In addition to the frequently reported decrease in growth rates, an increase in inter-annual growth variability and a decrease in growth synchrony may be powerful predictors of gymnosperm mortality risk, but not necessarily so for angiosperms.",
keywords = "4112 Forestry, tree mortality, ring-width, forest, biotic agents, variance, drought-induced tree, CARBON-ISOTOPE DISCRIMINATION, SCOTS PINE, RING GROWTH, HYDRAULIC DETERIORATION, RECOVERY RATES, tpping point, forest trees, climate, death",
author = "Maxime Cailleret and Vasilis Dakos and Steven Jansen and Robert, {Elisabeth M.R.} and Tuomas Aakala and Amoroso, {Mariano M.} and Antos, {Joe A.} and Christof Bigler and Harald Bugmann and Marco Caccianaga and Jesus-Julio Camarero and Paolo Cherubini and Goeya, {Marie R.} and Katarina Cufar and Das, {Adrian J.} and Hendrik Davi and Guillermo Gea-Izquierdo and Sten Gillner and Haavik, {Laurel J.} and Henrik Hartmann and Ana-Maria Heres and Hultine, {Kevin R.} and Pavel Janda and Kane, {Jeffrey M.} and Kharuk, {Vlachelsav I.} and Thomas Kitzberger and Tamir Klein and Tom Levanic and Juan-Carlos Linares and Fabio Lombardi and Harri M{\"a}kinen and Ilona Meszaros and Metsaranta, {Juha M.} and Walter Oberhuber and Andreas Papadopoulos and Petritan, {Any Mary} and Brigitte Rohner and Gabriel Sanguesa-Barreda and Smith, {Jeremy M.} and Stan, {Amanda B.} and Stojanovic, {Dejan B.} and {Laura Suarez}, Maria and Miroslav Svoboda and Volodymyr Trotsiuk and Ricardo Villalba and Westwood, {Alana R.} and Wyckoff, {Peter H.} and Jordi Martinez-Vilalta",
year = "2019",
month = "1",
day = "8",
doi = "10.3389/fpls.2018.01964",
language = "English",
volume = "9",
journal = "Frontiers in plant science",
issn = "1664-462X",
publisher = "Frontiers Media",

}

Cailleret, M, Dakos, V, Jansen, S, Robert, EMR, Aakala, T, Amoroso, MM, Antos, JA, Bigler, C, Bugmann, H, Caccianaga, M, Camarero, J-J, Cherubini, P, Goeya, MR, Cufar, K, Das, AJ, Davi, H, Gea-Izquierdo, G, Gillner, S, Haavik, LJ, Hartmann, H, Heres, A-M, Hultine, KR, Janda, P, Kane, JM, Kharuk, VI, Kitzberger, T, Klein, T, Levanic, T, Linares, J-C, Lombardi, F, Mäkinen, H, Meszaros, I, Metsaranta, JM, Oberhuber, W, Papadopoulos, A, Petritan, AM, Rohner, B, Sanguesa-Barreda, G, Smith, JM, Stan, AB, Stojanovic, DB, Laura Suarez, M, Svoboda, M, Trotsiuk, V, Villalba, R, Westwood, AR, Wyckoff, PH & Martinez-Vilalta, J 2019, 'Early-Warning Signals of Individual Tree Mortality Based on Annual Radial Growth', Frontiers in plant science, Vuosikerta 9, 1964. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpls.2018.01964

Early-Warning Signals of Individual Tree Mortality Based on Annual Radial Growth. / Cailleret, Maxime; Dakos, Vasilis; Jansen, Steven; Robert, Elisabeth M.R.; Aakala, Tuomas; Amoroso, Mariano M.; Antos, Joe A.; Bigler, Christof; Bugmann, Harald; Caccianaga, Marco; Camarero, Jesus-Julio; Cherubini, Paolo; Goeya, Marie R.; Cufar, Katarina; Das, Adrian J.; Davi, Hendrik; Gea-Izquierdo, Guillermo; Gillner, Sten; Haavik, Laurel J.; Hartmann, Henrik; Heres, Ana-Maria; Hultine, Kevin R.; Janda, Pavel; Kane, Jeffrey M.; Kharuk, Vlachelsav I.; Kitzberger, Thomas; Klein, Tamir; Levanic, Tom; Linares, Juan-Carlos; Lombardi, Fabio; Mäkinen, Harri; Meszaros, Ilona; Metsaranta, Juha M.; Oberhuber, Walter; Papadopoulos, Andreas; Petritan, Any Mary; Rohner, Brigitte; Sanguesa-Barreda, Gabriel; Smith, Jeremy M.; Stan, Amanda B.; Stojanovic, Dejan B.; Laura Suarez, Maria; Svoboda, Miroslav; Trotsiuk, Volodymyr; Villalba, Ricardo; Westwood, Alana R.; Wyckoff, Peter H.; Martinez-Vilalta, Jordi.

julkaisussa: Frontiers in plant science, Vuosikerta 9, 1964, 08.01.2019.

Tutkimustuotos: ArtikkelijulkaisuArtikkeliTieteellinenvertaisarvioitu

TY - JOUR

T1 - Early-Warning Signals of Individual Tree Mortality Based on Annual Radial Growth

AU - Cailleret, Maxime

AU - Dakos, Vasilis

AU - Jansen, Steven

AU - Robert, Elisabeth M.R.

AU - Aakala, Tuomas

AU - Amoroso, Mariano M.

AU - Antos, Joe A.

AU - Bigler, Christof

AU - Bugmann, Harald

AU - Caccianaga, Marco

AU - Camarero, Jesus-Julio

AU - Cherubini, Paolo

AU - Goeya, Marie R.

AU - Cufar, Katarina

AU - Das, Adrian J.

AU - Davi, Hendrik

AU - Gea-Izquierdo, Guillermo

AU - Gillner, Sten

AU - Haavik, Laurel J.

AU - Hartmann, Henrik

AU - Heres, Ana-Maria

AU - Hultine, Kevin R.

AU - Janda, Pavel

AU - Kane, Jeffrey M.

AU - Kharuk, Vlachelsav I.

AU - Kitzberger, Thomas

AU - Klein, Tamir

AU - Levanic, Tom

AU - Linares, Juan-Carlos

AU - Lombardi, Fabio

AU - Mäkinen, Harri

AU - Meszaros, Ilona

AU - Metsaranta, Juha M.

AU - Oberhuber, Walter

AU - Papadopoulos, Andreas

AU - Petritan, Any Mary

AU - Rohner, Brigitte

AU - Sanguesa-Barreda, Gabriel

AU - Smith, Jeremy M.

AU - Stan, Amanda B.

AU - Stojanovic, Dejan B.

AU - Laura Suarez, Maria

AU - Svoboda, Miroslav

AU - Trotsiuk, Volodymyr

AU - Villalba, Ricardo

AU - Westwood, Alana R.

AU - Wyckoff, Peter H.

AU - Martinez-Vilalta, Jordi

PY - 2019/1/8

Y1 - 2019/1/8

N2 - Tree mortality is a key driver of forest dynamics and its occurrence is projected to increase in the future due to climate change. Despite recent advances in our understanding of the physiological mechanisms leading to death, we still lack robust indicators of mortality risk that could be applied at the individual tree scale. Here, we build on a previous contribution exploring the differences in growth level between trees that died and survived a given mortality event to assess whether changes in temporal autocorrelation, variance, and synchrony in time-series of annual radial growth data can be used as early warning signals of mortality risk. Taking advantage of a unique global ring-width database of 3065 dead trees and 4389 living trees growing together at 198 sites (belonging to 36 gymnosperm and angiosperm species), we analyzed temporal changes in autocorrelation, variance, and synchrony before tree death (diachronic analysis), and also compared these metrics between trees that died and trees that survived a given mortality event (synchronic analysis). Changes in autocorrelation were a poor indicator of mortality risk. However, we found a gradual increase in inter- annual growth variability and a decrease in growth synchrony in the last similar to 20 years before mortality of gymnosperms, irrespective of the cause of mortality. These changes could be associated with drought-induced alterations in carbon economy and allocation patterns. In angiosperms, we did not find any consistent changes in any metric. Such lack of any signal might be explained by the relatively high capacity of angiosperms to recover after a stress-induced growth decline. Our analysis provides a robust method for estimating early-warning signals of tree mortality based on annual growth data. In addition to the frequently reported decrease in growth rates, an increase in inter-annual growth variability and a decrease in growth synchrony may be powerful predictors of gymnosperm mortality risk, but not necessarily so for angiosperms.

AB - Tree mortality is a key driver of forest dynamics and its occurrence is projected to increase in the future due to climate change. Despite recent advances in our understanding of the physiological mechanisms leading to death, we still lack robust indicators of mortality risk that could be applied at the individual tree scale. Here, we build on a previous contribution exploring the differences in growth level between trees that died and survived a given mortality event to assess whether changes in temporal autocorrelation, variance, and synchrony in time-series of annual radial growth data can be used as early warning signals of mortality risk. Taking advantage of a unique global ring-width database of 3065 dead trees and 4389 living trees growing together at 198 sites (belonging to 36 gymnosperm and angiosperm species), we analyzed temporal changes in autocorrelation, variance, and synchrony before tree death (diachronic analysis), and also compared these metrics between trees that died and trees that survived a given mortality event (synchronic analysis). Changes in autocorrelation were a poor indicator of mortality risk. However, we found a gradual increase in inter- annual growth variability and a decrease in growth synchrony in the last similar to 20 years before mortality of gymnosperms, irrespective of the cause of mortality. These changes could be associated with drought-induced alterations in carbon economy and allocation patterns. In angiosperms, we did not find any consistent changes in any metric. Such lack of any signal might be explained by the relatively high capacity of angiosperms to recover after a stress-induced growth decline. Our analysis provides a robust method for estimating early-warning signals of tree mortality based on annual growth data. In addition to the frequently reported decrease in growth rates, an increase in inter-annual growth variability and a decrease in growth synchrony may be powerful predictors of gymnosperm mortality risk, but not necessarily so for angiosperms.

KW - 4112 Forestry

KW - tree mortality

KW - ring-width

KW - forest

KW - biotic agents

KW - variance

KW - drought-induced tree

KW - CARBON-ISOTOPE DISCRIMINATION

KW - SCOTS PINE

KW - RING GROWTH

KW - HYDRAULIC DETERIORATION

KW - RECOVERY RATES

KW - tpping point

KW - forest trees

KW - climate

KW - death

U2 - 10.3389/fpls.2018.01964

DO - 10.3389/fpls.2018.01964

M3 - Article

VL - 9

JO - Frontiers in plant science

JF - Frontiers in plant science

SN - 1664-462X

M1 - 1964

ER -