Kuvaus

Increasing maritime traffic in the Arctic has heightened the oil spill-related risks in this highly sensitive environment. To quantitatively assess these risks, we need knowledge about both the vulnerability and sensitivity of the key Arctic functional groups that may be affected by spilled oil. However, in the Arctic these data are typically scarce or lacking altogether. To compensate for this limited data availability, we propose the use of a probabilistic expert elicitation methodology, which we apply to seals, anatids, and seabirds. Our results suggest that the impacts of oil vary between functional groups, seasons, and oil types. Overall, the impacts are least for seals and greatest for anatids. Offspring seem to be more sensitive than adults, the impact is greatest in spring, and medium and heavy oils are the most harmful oil types. The elicitation process worked well, yet finding enough skilled and motivated experts proved to be difficult.
Alkuperäiskielienglanti
LehtiMarine Pollution Bulletin
Vuosikerta131
Sivut782-792
Sivumäärä11
ISSN0025-326X
DOI - pysyväislinkit
TilaJulkaistu - kesäkuuta 2018
OKM-julkaisutyyppiA1 Alkuperäisartikkeli tieteellisessä aikakauslehdessä, vertaisarvioitu

Tieteenalat

  • 111 Matematiikka
  • 1181 Ekologia, evoluutiobiologia

Lainaa tätä

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title = "Estimating the acute impacts of Arctic marine oil spills using expert elicitation",
abstract = "Increasing maritime traffic in the Arctic has heightened the oil spill-related risks in this highly sensitive environment. To quantitatively assess these risks, we need knowledge about both the vulnerability and sensitivity of the key Arctic functional groups that may be affected by spilled oil. However, in the Arctic these data are typically scarce or lacking altogether. To compensate for this limited data availability, we propose the use of a probabilistic expert elicitation methodology, which we apply to seals, anatids, and seabirds. Our results suggest that the impacts of oil vary between functional groups, seasons, and oil types. Overall, the impacts are least for seals and greatest for anatids. Offspring seem to be more sensitive than adults, the impact is greatest in spring, and medium and heavy oils are the most harmful oil types. The elicitation process worked well, yet finding enough skilled and motivated experts proved to be difficult.",
keywords = "111 Mathematics, 1181 Ecology, evolutionary biology",
author = "Maisa Nevalainen and Inari Helle and Jarno Vanhatalo",
year = "2018",
month = "6",
doi = "10.1016/j.marpolbul.2018.04.076",
language = "English",
volume = "131",
pages = "782--792",
journal = "Marine Pollution Bulletin",
issn = "0025-326X",
publisher = "Elsevier Scientific Publ. Co",

}

Estimating the acute impacts of Arctic marine oil spills using expert elicitation. / Nevalainen, Maisa ; Helle, Inari; Vanhatalo, Jarno .

julkaisussa: Marine Pollution Bulletin, Vuosikerta 131, 06.2018, s. 782-792.

Tutkimustuotos: ArtikkelijulkaisuArtikkeliTieteellinenvertaisarvioitu

TY - JOUR

T1 - Estimating the acute impacts of Arctic marine oil spills using expert elicitation

AU - Nevalainen, Maisa

AU - Helle, Inari

AU - Vanhatalo, Jarno

PY - 2018/6

Y1 - 2018/6

N2 - Increasing maritime traffic in the Arctic has heightened the oil spill-related risks in this highly sensitive environment. To quantitatively assess these risks, we need knowledge about both the vulnerability and sensitivity of the key Arctic functional groups that may be affected by spilled oil. However, in the Arctic these data are typically scarce or lacking altogether. To compensate for this limited data availability, we propose the use of a probabilistic expert elicitation methodology, which we apply to seals, anatids, and seabirds. Our results suggest that the impacts of oil vary between functional groups, seasons, and oil types. Overall, the impacts are least for seals and greatest for anatids. Offspring seem to be more sensitive than adults, the impact is greatest in spring, and medium and heavy oils are the most harmful oil types. The elicitation process worked well, yet finding enough skilled and motivated experts proved to be difficult.

AB - Increasing maritime traffic in the Arctic has heightened the oil spill-related risks in this highly sensitive environment. To quantitatively assess these risks, we need knowledge about both the vulnerability and sensitivity of the key Arctic functional groups that may be affected by spilled oil. However, in the Arctic these data are typically scarce or lacking altogether. To compensate for this limited data availability, we propose the use of a probabilistic expert elicitation methodology, which we apply to seals, anatids, and seabirds. Our results suggest that the impacts of oil vary between functional groups, seasons, and oil types. Overall, the impacts are least for seals and greatest for anatids. Offspring seem to be more sensitive than adults, the impact is greatest in spring, and medium and heavy oils are the most harmful oil types. The elicitation process worked well, yet finding enough skilled and motivated experts proved to be difficult.

KW - 111 Mathematics

KW - 1181 Ecology, evolutionary biology

U2 - 10.1016/j.marpolbul.2018.04.076

DO - 10.1016/j.marpolbul.2018.04.076

M3 - Article

VL - 131

SP - 782

EP - 792

JO - Marine Pollution Bulletin

JF - Marine Pollution Bulletin

SN - 0025-326X

ER -