Evaluation of the Traffic Increase in the Gulf of Finland During the Years 2007-2015 and the Effect of the Increase on the Environment and Traffic Chain Activities

Annukka Lehikoinen, Emilia Luoma, Maria Hänninen, Jenni Storgård, Sakari Kuikka

Tutkimustuotos: Artikkeli kirjassa/raportissa/konferenssijulkaisussaKonferenssiartikkeliTieteellinenvertaisarvioitu

Kuvaus

The maritime traffic in the Gulf of Finland (GoF) is predicted to rapidly grow in the near future, which increases environmental risks through both direct environmental effects and by increasing the accident risk. Increasing oil transportation has increased the probability of a major oil accident in the GoF.

A multidisciplinary risk assessment and decision support tool, an Object-Oriented Bayesian Influence Diagram (OOBID) applying Bayesian Belief Networks, has been produced in the SAFGOF project. It consists of sub-models on collisions, causation probability including human factor, the resulting leak size, and the efficacy of open sea oil recovery. The OOBID is based on varying growth predictions, i.e. three alternative scenarios concerning maritime traffic of the GoF in 2015 and the probability of a major oil accident. The OOBID can be used to compare the effectiveness of different preventive management actions against the accident risk.

A questionnaire for Finnish maritime experts was formed in the project to study the effectiveness of different maritime safety policy instruments. Vessel Traffic Services and piloting were seen as the most important actions according to Finnish maritime experts. These actions are included in the metamodel as preventive management actions.

In addition, a user interface for the model has been developed for the evaluation of spatial ecological risks. The results of the Bayesian Belief Network can be combined with oil drifting maps and with the information on known endangered species populations on the Finnish coastline. The approach produces unique information on the environmental oil accident risks for certain accident-prone areas in the GoF.

The multidisciplinary approach developed in the SAFGOF project helps to compare the risks in the different parts of the oil accident cause – effect chain when current knowledge and uncertainty are taken into account.

Keywords: Maritime safety, Gulf of Finland, Bayesian belief networks, Decision analysis
Alkuperäiskielienglanti
Otsikko11th International Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference and the Annual European Safety and Reliability Conference 2012 (PSAM11 ESREL 2012) : Proceedings of a meeting held 25-29 June 2012, Helsinki, Finland.
Sivumäärä8
Julkaisupäivä2012
Sivut5528-5535
ISBN (painettu)9781622764365
TilaJulkaistu - 2012
OKM-julkaisutyyppiA4 Artikkeli konferenssijulkaisuussa
Tapahtuma11th International Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference - Helsinki, Suomi
Kesto: 25 kesäkuuta 201229 kesäkuuta 2012

Tieteenalat

  • 1172 Ympäristötiede

Lainaa tätä

Lehikoinen, A., Luoma, E., Hänninen, M., Storgård, J., & Kuikka, S. (2012). Evaluation of the Traffic Increase in the Gulf of Finland During the Years 2007-2015 and the Effect of the Increase on the Environment and Traffic Chain Activities. teoksessa 11th International Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference and the Annual European Safety and Reliability Conference 2012 (PSAM11 ESREL 2012) : Proceedings of a meeting held 25-29 June 2012, Helsinki, Finland. (Sivut 5528-5535)
Lehikoinen, Annukka ; Luoma, Emilia ; Hänninen, Maria ; Storgård, Jenni ; Kuikka, Sakari. / Evaluation of the Traffic Increase in the Gulf of Finland During the Years 2007-2015 and the Effect of the Increase on the Environment and Traffic Chain Activities. 11th International Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference and the Annual European Safety and Reliability Conference 2012 (PSAM11 ESREL 2012) : Proceedings of a meeting held 25-29 June 2012, Helsinki, Finland. . 2012. Sivut 5528-5535
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abstract = "The maritime traffic in the Gulf of Finland (GoF) is predicted to rapidly grow in the near future, which increases environmental risks through both direct environmental effects and by increasing the accident risk. Increasing oil transportation has increased the probability of a major oil accident in the GoF.A multidisciplinary risk assessment and decision support tool, an Object-Oriented Bayesian Influence Diagram (OOBID) applying Bayesian Belief Networks, has been produced in the SAFGOF project. It consists of sub-models on collisions, causation probability including human factor, the resulting leak size, and the efficacy of open sea oil recovery. The OOBID is based on varying growth predictions, i.e. three alternative scenarios concerning maritime traffic of the GoF in 2015 and the probability of a major oil accident. The OOBID can be used to compare the effectiveness of different preventive management actions against the accident risk. A questionnaire for Finnish maritime experts was formed in the project to study the effectiveness of different maritime safety policy instruments. Vessel Traffic Services and piloting were seen as the most important actions according to Finnish maritime experts. These actions are included in the metamodel as preventive management actions. In addition, a user interface for the model has been developed for the evaluation of spatial ecological risks. The results of the Bayesian Belief Network can be combined with oil drifting maps and with the information on known endangered species populations on the Finnish coastline. The approach produces unique information on the environmental oil accident risks for certain accident-prone areas in the GoF. The multidisciplinary approach developed in the SAFGOF project helps to compare the risks in the different parts of the oil accident cause – effect chain when current knowledge and uncertainty are taken into account.Keywords: Maritime safety, Gulf of Finland, Bayesian belief networks, Decision analysis",
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Lehikoinen, A, Luoma, E, Hänninen, M, Storgård, J & Kuikka, S 2012, Evaluation of the Traffic Increase in the Gulf of Finland During the Years 2007-2015 and the Effect of the Increase on the Environment and Traffic Chain Activities. julkaisussa 11th International Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference and the Annual European Safety and Reliability Conference 2012 (PSAM11 ESREL 2012) : Proceedings of a meeting held 25-29 June 2012, Helsinki, Finland. . Sivut 5528-5535, 11th International Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference, Helsinki, Suomi, 25/06/2012.

Evaluation of the Traffic Increase in the Gulf of Finland During the Years 2007-2015 and the Effect of the Increase on the Environment and Traffic Chain Activities. / Lehikoinen, Annukka; Luoma, Emilia; Hänninen, Maria; Storgård, Jenni; Kuikka, Sakari.

11th International Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference and the Annual European Safety and Reliability Conference 2012 (PSAM11 ESREL 2012) : Proceedings of a meeting held 25-29 June 2012, Helsinki, Finland. . 2012. s. 5528-5535.

Tutkimustuotos: Artikkeli kirjassa/raportissa/konferenssijulkaisussaKonferenssiartikkeliTieteellinenvertaisarvioitu

TY - GEN

T1 - Evaluation of the Traffic Increase in the Gulf of Finland During the Years 2007-2015 and the Effect of the Increase on the Environment and Traffic Chain Activities

AU - Lehikoinen, Annukka

AU - Luoma, Emilia

AU - Hänninen, Maria

AU - Storgård, Jenni

AU - Kuikka, Sakari

N1 - Volume: Proceeding volume:

PY - 2012

Y1 - 2012

N2 - The maritime traffic in the Gulf of Finland (GoF) is predicted to rapidly grow in the near future, which increases environmental risks through both direct environmental effects and by increasing the accident risk. Increasing oil transportation has increased the probability of a major oil accident in the GoF.A multidisciplinary risk assessment and decision support tool, an Object-Oriented Bayesian Influence Diagram (OOBID) applying Bayesian Belief Networks, has been produced in the SAFGOF project. It consists of sub-models on collisions, causation probability including human factor, the resulting leak size, and the efficacy of open sea oil recovery. The OOBID is based on varying growth predictions, i.e. three alternative scenarios concerning maritime traffic of the GoF in 2015 and the probability of a major oil accident. The OOBID can be used to compare the effectiveness of different preventive management actions against the accident risk. A questionnaire for Finnish maritime experts was formed in the project to study the effectiveness of different maritime safety policy instruments. Vessel Traffic Services and piloting were seen as the most important actions according to Finnish maritime experts. These actions are included in the metamodel as preventive management actions. In addition, a user interface for the model has been developed for the evaluation of spatial ecological risks. The results of the Bayesian Belief Network can be combined with oil drifting maps and with the information on known endangered species populations on the Finnish coastline. The approach produces unique information on the environmental oil accident risks for certain accident-prone areas in the GoF. The multidisciplinary approach developed in the SAFGOF project helps to compare the risks in the different parts of the oil accident cause – effect chain when current knowledge and uncertainty are taken into account.Keywords: Maritime safety, Gulf of Finland, Bayesian belief networks, Decision analysis

AB - The maritime traffic in the Gulf of Finland (GoF) is predicted to rapidly grow in the near future, which increases environmental risks through both direct environmental effects and by increasing the accident risk. Increasing oil transportation has increased the probability of a major oil accident in the GoF.A multidisciplinary risk assessment and decision support tool, an Object-Oriented Bayesian Influence Diagram (OOBID) applying Bayesian Belief Networks, has been produced in the SAFGOF project. It consists of sub-models on collisions, causation probability including human factor, the resulting leak size, and the efficacy of open sea oil recovery. The OOBID is based on varying growth predictions, i.e. three alternative scenarios concerning maritime traffic of the GoF in 2015 and the probability of a major oil accident. The OOBID can be used to compare the effectiveness of different preventive management actions against the accident risk. A questionnaire for Finnish maritime experts was formed in the project to study the effectiveness of different maritime safety policy instruments. Vessel Traffic Services and piloting were seen as the most important actions according to Finnish maritime experts. These actions are included in the metamodel as preventive management actions. In addition, a user interface for the model has been developed for the evaluation of spatial ecological risks. The results of the Bayesian Belief Network can be combined with oil drifting maps and with the information on known endangered species populations on the Finnish coastline. The approach produces unique information on the environmental oil accident risks for certain accident-prone areas in the GoF. The multidisciplinary approach developed in the SAFGOF project helps to compare the risks in the different parts of the oil accident cause – effect chain when current knowledge and uncertainty are taken into account.Keywords: Maritime safety, Gulf of Finland, Bayesian belief networks, Decision analysis

KW - 1172 Environmental sciences

M3 - Conference contribution

SN - 9781622764365

SP - 5528

EP - 5535

BT - 11th International Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference and the Annual European Safety and Reliability Conference 2012 (PSAM11 ESREL 2012)

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Lehikoinen A, Luoma E, Hänninen M, Storgård J, Kuikka S. Evaluation of the Traffic Increase in the Gulf of Finland During the Years 2007-2015 and the Effect of the Increase on the Environment and Traffic Chain Activities. julkaisussa 11th International Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference and the Annual European Safety and Reliability Conference 2012 (PSAM11 ESREL 2012) : Proceedings of a meeting held 25-29 June 2012, Helsinki, Finland. . 2012. s. 5528-5535