Priors and Posteriors in Bayesian Timing of Divergence Analyses: The Age of Butterflies Revisited

Nicolas Chazot, Niklas Wahlberg, Andre Victor Lucci Freitas, Charles Mitter, Conrad Labandeira, Jae-Cheon Sohn, Ranjit Kumar Sahoo, Noemy Seraphim, Rienk de Jong, Aura Anna Maria Heikkilä

Tutkimustuotos: ArtikkelijulkaisuArtikkeliTieteellinenvertaisarvioitu

Kuvaus

Abstract
The need for robust estimates of times of divergence is essential for downstream analyses, yet assessing this robustness is still rare. We generated a time-calibrated genus-level phylogeny of butterflies (Papilionoidea), including 994 taxa, up to 10 gene fragments and an unprecedented set of 12 fossils and 10 host-plant node calibration points. We compared marginal priors and posterior distributions to assess the relative importance of the former on the latter. This approach revealed a strong influence of the set of priors on the root age but for most calibrated nodes posterior distributions shifted from the marginal prior, indicating significant information in the molecular data set. Using a very conservative approach we estimated an origin of butterflies at 107.6 Ma, approximately equivalent to the latest Early Cretaceous, with a credibility interval ranging from 89.5 Ma (mid Late Cretaceous) to 129.5 Ma (mid Early Cretaceous). In addition, we tested the effects of changing fossil calibration priors, tree prior, different sets of calibrations and different sampling fractions but our estimate remained robust to these alternative assumptions. With 994 genera, this tree provides a comprehensive source of secondary calibrations for studies on butterflies.
Alkuperäiskielienglanti
LehtiSystematic Biology
Vuosikerta68
Numero5
Sivut797-813
ISSN1063-5157
TilaJulkaistu - 25 helmikuuta 2019
OKM-julkaisutyyppiA1 Alkuperäisartikkeli tieteellisessä aikakauslehdessä, vertaisarvioitu

Lainaa tätä

Chazot, N., Wahlberg, N., Freitas, A. V. L., Mitter, C., Labandeira, C., Sohn, J-C., ... Heikkilä, A. A. M. (2019). Priors and Posteriors in Bayesian Timing of Divergence Analyses: The Age of Butterflies Revisited. Systematic Biology, 68(5), 797-813.
Chazot, Nicolas ; Wahlberg, Niklas ; Freitas, Andre Victor Lucci ; Mitter, Charles ; Labandeira, Conrad ; Sohn, Jae-Cheon ; Sahoo, Ranjit Kumar ; Seraphim, Noemy ; de Jong, Rienk ; Heikkilä, Aura Anna Maria. / Priors and Posteriors in Bayesian Timing of Divergence Analyses: The Age of Butterflies Revisited. Julkaisussa: Systematic Biology. 2019 ; Vuosikerta 68, Nro 5. Sivut 797-813.
@article{d6bda0f1a16b4e65984f2781d2d52707,
title = "Priors and Posteriors in Bayesian Timing of Divergence Analyses: The Age of Butterflies Revisited",
abstract = "AbstractThe need for robust estimates of times of divergence is essential for downstream analyses, yet assessing this robustness is still rare. We generated a time-calibrated genus-level phylogeny of butterflies (Papilionoidea), including 994 taxa, up to 10 gene fragments and an unprecedented set of 12 fossils and 10 host-plant node calibration points. We compared marginal priors and posterior distributions to assess the relative importance of the former on the latter. This approach revealed a strong influence of the set of priors on the root age but for most calibrated nodes posterior distributions shifted from the marginal prior, indicating significant information in the molecular data set. Using a very conservative approach we estimated an origin of butterflies at 107.6 Ma, approximately equivalent to the latest Early Cretaceous, with a credibility interval ranging from 89.5 Ma (mid Late Cretaceous) to 129.5 Ma (mid Early Cretaceous). In addition, we tested the effects of changing fossil calibration priors, tree prior, different sets of calibrations and different sampling fractions but our estimate remained robust to these alternative assumptions. With 994 genera, this tree provides a comprehensive source of secondary calibrations for studies on butterflies.",
author = "Nicolas Chazot and Niklas Wahlberg and Freitas, {Andre Victor Lucci} and Charles Mitter and Conrad Labandeira and Jae-Cheon Sohn and Sahoo, {Ranjit Kumar} and Noemy Seraphim and {de Jong}, Rienk and Heikkil{\"a}, {Aura Anna Maria}",
year = "2019",
month = "2",
day = "25",
language = "English",
volume = "68",
pages = "797--813",
journal = "Systematic Biology",
issn = "1063-5157",
publisher = "Oxford University Press",
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}

Chazot, N, Wahlberg, N, Freitas, AVL, Mitter, C, Labandeira, C, Sohn, J-C, Sahoo, RK, Seraphim, N, de Jong, R & Heikkilä, AAM 2019, 'Priors and Posteriors in Bayesian Timing of Divergence Analyses: The Age of Butterflies Revisited', Systematic Biology, Vuosikerta 68, Nro 5, Sivut 797-813.

Priors and Posteriors in Bayesian Timing of Divergence Analyses: The Age of Butterflies Revisited. / Chazot, Nicolas; Wahlberg, Niklas; Freitas, Andre Victor Lucci; Mitter, Charles; Labandeira, Conrad; Sohn, Jae-Cheon ; Sahoo, Ranjit Kumar; Seraphim, Noemy; de Jong, Rienk; Heikkilä, Aura Anna Maria.

julkaisussa: Systematic Biology, Vuosikerta 68, Nro 5, 25.02.2019, s. 797-813.

Tutkimustuotos: ArtikkelijulkaisuArtikkeliTieteellinenvertaisarvioitu

TY - JOUR

T1 - Priors and Posteriors in Bayesian Timing of Divergence Analyses: The Age of Butterflies Revisited

AU - Chazot, Nicolas

AU - Wahlberg, Niklas

AU - Freitas, Andre Victor Lucci

AU - Mitter, Charles

AU - Labandeira, Conrad

AU - Sohn, Jae-Cheon

AU - Sahoo, Ranjit Kumar

AU - Seraphim, Noemy

AU - de Jong, Rienk

AU - Heikkilä, Aura Anna Maria

PY - 2019/2/25

Y1 - 2019/2/25

N2 - AbstractThe need for robust estimates of times of divergence is essential for downstream analyses, yet assessing this robustness is still rare. We generated a time-calibrated genus-level phylogeny of butterflies (Papilionoidea), including 994 taxa, up to 10 gene fragments and an unprecedented set of 12 fossils and 10 host-plant node calibration points. We compared marginal priors and posterior distributions to assess the relative importance of the former on the latter. This approach revealed a strong influence of the set of priors on the root age but for most calibrated nodes posterior distributions shifted from the marginal prior, indicating significant information in the molecular data set. Using a very conservative approach we estimated an origin of butterflies at 107.6 Ma, approximately equivalent to the latest Early Cretaceous, with a credibility interval ranging from 89.5 Ma (mid Late Cretaceous) to 129.5 Ma (mid Early Cretaceous). In addition, we tested the effects of changing fossil calibration priors, tree prior, different sets of calibrations and different sampling fractions but our estimate remained robust to these alternative assumptions. With 994 genera, this tree provides a comprehensive source of secondary calibrations for studies on butterflies.

AB - AbstractThe need for robust estimates of times of divergence is essential for downstream analyses, yet assessing this robustness is still rare. We generated a time-calibrated genus-level phylogeny of butterflies (Papilionoidea), including 994 taxa, up to 10 gene fragments and an unprecedented set of 12 fossils and 10 host-plant node calibration points. We compared marginal priors and posterior distributions to assess the relative importance of the former on the latter. This approach revealed a strong influence of the set of priors on the root age but for most calibrated nodes posterior distributions shifted from the marginal prior, indicating significant information in the molecular data set. Using a very conservative approach we estimated an origin of butterflies at 107.6 Ma, approximately equivalent to the latest Early Cretaceous, with a credibility interval ranging from 89.5 Ma (mid Late Cretaceous) to 129.5 Ma (mid Early Cretaceous). In addition, we tested the effects of changing fossil calibration priors, tree prior, different sets of calibrations and different sampling fractions but our estimate remained robust to these alternative assumptions. With 994 genera, this tree provides a comprehensive source of secondary calibrations for studies on butterflies.

M3 - Article

VL - 68

SP - 797

EP - 813

JO - Systematic Biology

JF - Systematic Biology

SN - 1063-5157

IS - 5

ER -

Chazot N, Wahlberg N, Freitas AVL, Mitter C, Labandeira C, Sohn J-C et al. Priors and Posteriors in Bayesian Timing of Divergence Analyses: The Age of Butterflies Revisited. Systematic Biology. 2019 helmi 25;68(5):797-813.