Probabilistic assessment tool for the Water Framework Directive: application to the Gulf of Finland

Annukka Lehikoinen, Eveliina Klemola, Samu Mäntyniemi, Sakari Kuikka, Päivi Korpinen

Tutkimustuotos: Artikkeli kirjassa/raportissa/konferenssijulkaisussaKonferenssiartikkeliTieteellinen

Kuvaus

Ecological status classification (ESC) of the Water Framework Directive (WFD) aims for the harmonized evaluation and management of inland and coastal watersheds in Europe. The target state, “good ecological status” by year 2015, provides a clear minimum to be reached. WFD ESC is based on a management-oriented view. If the state of a watershed is judged moderate or worse, there is a need to act and improve the state. We present a prototype of a modeling tool that can be used to assess the probability to reach WFD aims in the Finnish coastal waters of the Gulf of Finland. The model is based on a relatively simple Bayesian network (BN) structure that integrates results from complicated load and
ecosystem models and data-analyses, given alternative nutrient abatement scenarios in Finland, Estonia and Russia as decision options. Thus, the BN is used as a meta-model that integrates knowledge from several sources. The role of the climate change, as well as uncertainties arising from it and other sources can be analyzed as well. We suggest that this type of a decision model could be useful in international co-operation when defining aims, areal responsibilities and optimal use of resources available for the abatement of nutrient loads. It would be of help also when comparing divergent national implementation approaches of the WFD ESC or evaluating the magnitude of reference values and uncertainties related to them.
Alkuperäiskielienglanti
OtsikkoICES CM Documents 2010 : ICES CM 2010 / B:12
Sivumäärä18
Julkaisupäivä2010
Sivut1-18
TilaJulkaistu - 2010
OKM-julkaisutyyppiB3 Vertaisarvioimaton artikkeli konferenssijulkaisussa
TapahtumaICES Annual Science Conference 2010. International Council for the Exploration of the Sea - Nantes, Ranska
Kesto: 20 syyskuuta 201024 syyskuuta 2010

Tieteenalat

  • 117 Maantiede ja ympäristötieteet
  • Bayesian networks
  • Water Framework Directive
  • ecological status classification
  • decision analysis

Lainaa tätä

Lehikoinen, A., Klemola, E., Mäntyniemi, S., Kuikka, S., & Korpinen, P. (2010). Probabilistic assessment tool for the Water Framework Directive: application to the Gulf of Finland. teoksessa ICES CM Documents 2010: ICES CM 2010 / B:12 (Sivut 1-18)
Lehikoinen, Annukka ; Klemola, Eveliina ; Mäntyniemi, Samu ; Kuikka, Sakari ; Korpinen, Päivi. / Probabilistic assessment tool for the Water Framework Directive : application to the Gulf of Finland. ICES CM Documents 2010: ICES CM 2010 / B:12 . 2010. Sivut 1-18
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title = "Probabilistic assessment tool for the Water Framework Directive: application to the Gulf of Finland",
abstract = "Ecological status classification (ESC) of the Water Framework Directive (WFD) aims for the harmonized evaluation and management of inland and coastal watersheds in Europe. The target state, “good ecological status” by year 2015, provides a clear minimum to be reached. WFD ESC is based on a management-oriented view. If the state of a watershed is judged moderate or worse, there is a need to act and improve the state. We present a prototype of a modeling tool that can be used to assess the probability to reach WFD aims in the Finnish coastal waters of the Gulf of Finland. The model is based on a relatively simple Bayesian network (BN) structure that integrates results from complicated load andecosystem models and data-analyses, given alternative nutrient abatement scenarios in Finland, Estonia and Russia as decision options. Thus, the BN is used as a meta-model that integrates knowledge from several sources. The role of the climate change, as well as uncertainties arising from it and other sources can be analyzed as well. We suggest that this type of a decision model could be useful in international co-operation when defining aims, areal responsibilities and optimal use of resources available for the abatement of nutrient loads. It would be of help also when comparing divergent national implementation approaches of the WFD ESC or evaluating the magnitude of reference values and uncertainties related to them.",
keywords = "117 Geography, Environmental sciences, Bayesian networks, Water Framework Directive, ecological status classification, decision analysis",
author = "Annukka Lehikoinen and Eveliina Klemola and Samu M{\"a}ntyniemi and Sakari Kuikka and P{\"a}ivi Korpinen",
note = "Volume: Proceeding volume:",
year = "2010",
language = "English",
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booktitle = "ICES CM Documents 2010",

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Lehikoinen, A, Klemola, E, Mäntyniemi, S, Kuikka, S & Korpinen, P 2010, Probabilistic assessment tool for the Water Framework Directive: application to the Gulf of Finland. julkaisussa ICES CM Documents 2010: ICES CM 2010 / B:12 . Sivut 1-18, ICES Annual Science Conference 2010. International Council for the Exploration of the Sea, Nantes, Ranska, 20/09/2010.

Probabilistic assessment tool for the Water Framework Directive : application to the Gulf of Finland. / Lehikoinen, Annukka; Klemola, Eveliina; Mäntyniemi, Samu; Kuikka, Sakari; Korpinen, Päivi.

ICES CM Documents 2010: ICES CM 2010 / B:12 . 2010. s. 1-18.

Tutkimustuotos: Artikkeli kirjassa/raportissa/konferenssijulkaisussaKonferenssiartikkeliTieteellinen

TY - GEN

T1 - Probabilistic assessment tool for the Water Framework Directive

T2 - application to the Gulf of Finland

AU - Lehikoinen, Annukka

AU - Klemola, Eveliina

AU - Mäntyniemi, Samu

AU - Kuikka, Sakari

AU - Korpinen, Päivi

N1 - Volume: Proceeding volume:

PY - 2010

Y1 - 2010

N2 - Ecological status classification (ESC) of the Water Framework Directive (WFD) aims for the harmonized evaluation and management of inland and coastal watersheds in Europe. The target state, “good ecological status” by year 2015, provides a clear minimum to be reached. WFD ESC is based on a management-oriented view. If the state of a watershed is judged moderate or worse, there is a need to act and improve the state. We present a prototype of a modeling tool that can be used to assess the probability to reach WFD aims in the Finnish coastal waters of the Gulf of Finland. The model is based on a relatively simple Bayesian network (BN) structure that integrates results from complicated load andecosystem models and data-analyses, given alternative nutrient abatement scenarios in Finland, Estonia and Russia as decision options. Thus, the BN is used as a meta-model that integrates knowledge from several sources. The role of the climate change, as well as uncertainties arising from it and other sources can be analyzed as well. We suggest that this type of a decision model could be useful in international co-operation when defining aims, areal responsibilities and optimal use of resources available for the abatement of nutrient loads. It would be of help also when comparing divergent national implementation approaches of the WFD ESC or evaluating the magnitude of reference values and uncertainties related to them.

AB - Ecological status classification (ESC) of the Water Framework Directive (WFD) aims for the harmonized evaluation and management of inland and coastal watersheds in Europe. The target state, “good ecological status” by year 2015, provides a clear minimum to be reached. WFD ESC is based on a management-oriented view. If the state of a watershed is judged moderate or worse, there is a need to act and improve the state. We present a prototype of a modeling tool that can be used to assess the probability to reach WFD aims in the Finnish coastal waters of the Gulf of Finland. The model is based on a relatively simple Bayesian network (BN) structure that integrates results from complicated load andecosystem models and data-analyses, given alternative nutrient abatement scenarios in Finland, Estonia and Russia as decision options. Thus, the BN is used as a meta-model that integrates knowledge from several sources. The role of the climate change, as well as uncertainties arising from it and other sources can be analyzed as well. We suggest that this type of a decision model could be useful in international co-operation when defining aims, areal responsibilities and optimal use of resources available for the abatement of nutrient loads. It would be of help also when comparing divergent national implementation approaches of the WFD ESC or evaluating the magnitude of reference values and uncertainties related to them.

KW - 117 Geography, Environmental sciences

KW - Bayesian networks

KW - Water Framework Directive

KW - ecological status classification

KW - decision analysis

M3 - Conference contribution

SP - 1

EP - 18

BT - ICES CM Documents 2010

ER -

Lehikoinen A, Klemola E, Mäntyniemi S, Kuikka S, Korpinen P. Probabilistic assessment tool for the Water Framework Directive: application to the Gulf of Finland. julkaisussa ICES CM Documents 2010: ICES CM 2010 / B:12 . 2010. s. 1-18