Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis in low-seismicity regions: An investigation of sensitivity with a focus on Finland

Ludovic Fülöp, Päivi Mäntyniemi, Marianne Malm, Gabriel Toro, María J. Crespo, Timo Schmitt, Simon Burck, Pekka Välikangas

Tutkimustuotos: ArtikkelijulkaisuArtikkeliTieteellinenvertaisarvioitu

Abstrakti

We investigate probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) in low-seismicity regions in which epistemic uncertainties are largely due to the sparsity of data, with a focus on Finland, northern Europe. We investigate the sensitivity of site-specific PSHA outcomes to different choices of basic input parameters, starting from preexisting PSHA models of the nuclear licensees in the country, without producing a final hazard curve. The outcome shows that the parameters and models needed to estimate future seismicity rates from actual observations, in particular the b value, seismicity rates, and the largest possible magnitude, Mmax, as well as the median ground-motion prediction equation, play significant roles. The sensitivity also depends on the spectral frequency; for example, the effect of Mmax is significant especially for a low-frequency hazard at annual frequency of exceedance 10−5 but more moderate for peak ground acceleration. The delineation of seismic source zones (SSZs) remains ambiguous in regions of low seismicity. This, combined with the dominance of the host SSZ and its seismicity parameters, may have a substantial impact on the outcome. Our results are quantitatively applicable to Finland, but may also be of relevance to other low-seismicity regions in Europe and elsewhere. For future work we recommend the exploration of PSHA sensitivity with focus on the host SSZ with its immediate vicinity and the b value around the site of interest.
Alkuperäiskielienglanti
LehtiNatural Hazards
Vuosikerta116
Numero1
Sivut111-132
Sivumäärä22
ISSN0921-030X
DOI - pysyväislinkit
TilaJulkaistu - maalisk. 2023
OKM-julkaisutyyppiA1 Alkuperäisartikkeli tieteellisessä aikakauslehdessä, vertaisarvioitu

Lisätietoja

Online supplementary information

Tieteenalat

  • 1171 Geotieteet
  • low-seismicity regions
  • probabilistic seismic hazard analysis
  • sensitivity investigation
  • nuclear power plant
  • Finland
  • 3rd European Conference on Earthquake Engineering and Seismology

    Ludovic Fülöp (Puhuja: esitelmän pitäjä), Päivi Mäntyniemi (Osallistuja), Marianne Malm (Osallistuja), Gabriel Toro (Osallistuja), María J. Crespo (Osallistuja), Timo Schmitt (Osallistuja), Simon Burck (Osallistuja) & Pekka Välikangas (Osallistuja)

    4 syysk. 20229 syysk. 2022

    Aktiviteetti: Tapahtumaan osallistumisen ja tapahtuman järjestämisen tyypitKonferensseihin, kursseille ja seminaareihin osallistuminen ja näiden järjestäminen

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