Recent human-induced atmospheric drying across Europe unprecedented in the last 400 years

Kerstin Treydte, Laibao Liu, Ryan S. Padrón, Elisabet Martínez-Sancho, Flurin Babst, David C. Frank, Arthur Gessler, Ansgar Kahmen, Benjamin Poulter, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Annemiek I. Stegehuis, Rob Wilson, Laia Andreu‐Hayles, Roderick Bale, Zdzislaw Bednarz, Tatjana Boettger, Frank Berninger, Ulf Büntgen, Valerie Daux, Isabel Dorado‐LiñánJan Esper, Michael Friedrich, Mary Gagen, Michael Grabner, Håkan Grudd, Björn E. Gunnarsson, Emilia Gutiérrez, Polona Hafner, Marika Haupt, Emmi Hilasvuori, Ingo Heinrich, Gerhard Helle, Risto Jalkanen, Högne Jungner, Maarit Kalela‐Brundin, Andreas Kessler, Andreas Kirchhefer, Stephan Klesse, Marek Krapiec, Tom Levanič, Markus Leuenberger, Hans W. Linderholm, Danny McCarroll, Valérie Masson‐Delmotte, Slawomira Pawelczyk, Anna Pazdur, Octavi Planells, Rutile Pukiene, Katja T. Rinne-Garmston, Iain Robertson, Antonio Saracino, Matthias Saurer, Gerhard H. Schleser, Kristina Seftigen, Rolf T. W. Siegwolf, Eloni Sonninen, Michel Stievenard, Elzbieta Szychowska-Krapiec, Malgorzata Szymaszek, Luigi Todaro, John S. Waterhouse, Martin Weigl-Kuska, Rosemarie B. Weigt, Rupert Wimmer, Ewan J. Woodley, Adomas Vitas, Giles Young, Neil J. Loader

Tutkimustuotos: ArtikkelijulkaisuArtikkeliTieteellinenvertaisarvioitu

Abstrakti

Vapor pressure deficit (VPD) represents the desiccation strength of the atmosphere that fundamentally affects evapotranspiration, ecosystem functioning and vegetation carbon uptake. Its spatial variability and long-term trends under natural versus human influenced climate are poorly known but are essential for predicting future effects on natural ecosystems and human societies such as crop yield, wildfires, and health. We combine regionally distinct reconstructions of pre-industrial summer VPD variability from Europe’s largest tree-ring oxygen-isotope network with observational records and Earth System Model simulations with and without human forcing included. We demonstrate that an intensification of atmospheric drying during the recent decades across different European target regions is unprecedented in a pre-industrial context and that it is attributed to human influence with more than 98% probability. The magnitude of this trend is largest in Western and Central Europe and the Alps & Pyrenees, and smallest in southern Fennoscandia. In view of the extreme drought and compound events of the recent years, further atmospheric drying poses an enhanced risk on vegetation, specifically in the densely populated areas of the European temperate lowlands including tree survival, forest resilience in natural and urban ecosystems, and food production.
Alkuperäiskielienglanti
LehtiNature Geoscience
Vuosikerta17
Sivut58–65
Sivumäärä18
ISSN1752-0908
DOI - pysyväislinkit
TilaJulkaistu - tammik. 2024
OKM-julkaisutyyppiA1 Alkuperäisartikkeli tieteellisessä aikakauslehdessä, vertaisarvioitu

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