Shared socio-economic pathways extended for the Baltic Sea: exploring long-term environmental problems

Marianne Zandersen, Kari Petri Hyytiäinen, H. E. Markus Meier, Maciej T. Tomczak, Bauer Barbara, Päivi Elisabet Haapasaari, Jorgen E. Olesen, Bo G. Gustafsson, Jens Christian Refsgaard, Erik Fridell, Sampo Olavi Pihlainen, Martin D.A. Le Tissier, Anna-Kaisa Elisabet Kosenius, Detlef P. van Vuuren

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Long-term scenario analyses can be powerful tools to explore plausible futures of human development under changing environmental, social, and economic conditions and to evaluate implications of different approaches to reduce pollution and resource overuse. Vulnerable ecosystems like the Baltic Sea in North-Eastern Europe tend to be under pressure from multiple, interacting anthropogenic drivers both related to the local scale (e.g. land use change) and the global scale (e.g. climate change). There is currently a lack of scenarios supporting policy-making that systematically explore how global and regional developments could concurrently impact the Baltic Sea region. Here, we present five narratives for future development in the Baltic Sea region, consistent with the global Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) developed for climate research. We focus on agriculture, wastewater treatment, fisheries, shipping, and atmospheric deposition, which all represent major pressures on the Baltic Sea. While we find strong links between the global pathways and regional pressures, we also conclude that each pathway may very well be the host of different sectoral developments, which in turn may have different impacts on the ecosystem state. The extended SSP narratives for the Baltic Sea region are intended as a description of sectoral developments at regional scale that enable detailed scenario analysis and discussions across different sectors and disciplines, but within a common context. In addition, the extended SSPs can readily be combined with climate pathways for integrated scenario analysis of regional environmental problems.
Alkuperäiskielienglanti
LehtiRegional Environmental Change
Vuosikerta19
Numero4
Sivut1073-1086
Sivumäärä14
ISSN1436-3798
DOI - pysyväislinkit
TilaJulkaistu - huhtikuuta 2019
OKM-julkaisutyyppiA1 Alkuperäisartikkeli tieteellisessä aikakauslehdessä, vertaisarvioitu

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    Zandersen, Marianne ; Hyytiäinen, Kari Petri ; Meier, H. E. Markus ; Tomczak, Maciej T. ; Barbara, Bauer ; Haapasaari, Päivi Elisabet ; Olesen, Jorgen E. ; Gustafsson, Bo G. ; Refsgaard, Jens Christian ; Fridell, Erik ; Pihlainen, Sampo Olavi ; Le Tissier, Martin D.A. ; Kosenius, Anna-Kaisa Elisabet ; van Vuuren, Detlef P. / Shared socio-economic pathways extended for the Baltic Sea: exploring long-term environmental problems. Julkaisussa: Regional Environmental Change. 2019 ; Vuosikerta 19, Nro 4. Sivut 1073-1086.
    @article{b39a0e4a93bf4abfb2c3563510c2b125,
    title = "Shared socio-economic pathways extended for the Baltic Sea: exploring long-term environmental problems",
    abstract = "Long-term scenario analyses can be powerful tools to explore plausible futures of human development under changing environmental, social, and economic conditions and to evaluate implications of different approaches to reduce pollution and resource overuse. Vulnerable ecosystems like the Baltic Sea in North-Eastern Europe tend to be under pressure from multiple, interacting anthropogenic drivers both related to the local scale (e.g. land use change) and the global scale (e.g. climate change). There is currently a lack of scenarios supporting policy-making that systematically explore how global and regional developments could concurrently impact the Baltic Sea region. Here, we present five narratives for future development in the Baltic Sea region, consistent with the global Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) developed for climate research. We focus on agriculture, wastewater treatment, fisheries, shipping, and atmospheric deposition, which all represent major pressures on the Baltic Sea. While we find strong links between the global pathways and regional pressures, we also conclude that each pathway may very well be the host of different sectoral developments, which in turn may have different impacts on the ecosystem state. The extended SSP narratives for the Baltic Sea region are intended as a description of sectoral developments at regional scale that enable detailed scenario analysis and discussions across different sectors and disciplines, but within a common context. In addition, the extended SSPs can readily be combined with climate pathways for integrated scenario analysis of regional environmental problems.",
    keywords = "AGRICULTURAL NITROGEN, Agriculture, CLIMATE-CHANGE RESEARCH, ECOSYSTEM, EMISSIONS, Environmental problems, FOOD, FUTURE, Fisheries, IMPACTS, MANAGEMENT, SANITATION, SCENARIOS, Scenarios, Shipping, Wastewater treatment",
    author = "Marianne Zandersen and Hyyti{\"a}inen, {Kari Petri} and Meier, {H. E. Markus} and Tomczak, {Maciej T.} and Bauer Barbara and Haapasaari, {P{\"a}ivi Elisabet} and Olesen, {Jorgen E.} and Gustafsson, {Bo G.} and Refsgaard, {Jens Christian} and Erik Fridell and Pihlainen, {Sampo Olavi} and {Le Tissier}, {Martin D.A.} and Kosenius, {Anna-Kaisa Elisabet} and {van Vuuren}, {Detlef P.}",
    year = "2019",
    month = "4",
    doi = "https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-018-1453-0",
    language = "English",
    volume = "19",
    pages = "1073--1086",
    journal = "Regional Environmental Change",
    issn = "1436-3798",
    publisher = "Springer Heidelberg",
    number = "4",

    }

    Zandersen, M, Hyytiäinen, KP, Meier, HEM, Tomczak, MT, Barbara, B, Haapasaari, PE, Olesen, JE, Gustafsson, BG, Refsgaard, JC, Fridell, E, Pihlainen, SO, Le Tissier, MDA, Kosenius, A-KE & van Vuuren, DP 2019, 'Shared socio-economic pathways extended for the Baltic Sea: exploring long-term environmental problems' Regional Environmental Change, Vuosikerta 19, Nro 4, Sivut 1073-1086. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-018-1453-0

    Shared socio-economic pathways extended for the Baltic Sea: exploring long-term environmental problems. / Zandersen, Marianne; Hyytiäinen, Kari Petri; Meier, H. E. Markus; Tomczak, Maciej T.; Barbara, Bauer; Haapasaari, Päivi Elisabet; Olesen, Jorgen E.; Gustafsson, Bo G.; Refsgaard, Jens Christian; Fridell, Erik; Pihlainen, Sampo Olavi; Le Tissier, Martin D.A.; Kosenius, Anna-Kaisa Elisabet; van Vuuren, Detlef P.

    julkaisussa: Regional Environmental Change, Vuosikerta 19, Nro 4, 04.2019, s. 1073-1086.

    Tutkimustuotos: ArtikkelijulkaisuArtikkeliTieteellinenvertaisarvioitu

    TY - JOUR

    T1 - Shared socio-economic pathways extended for the Baltic Sea: exploring long-term environmental problems

    AU - Zandersen, Marianne

    AU - Hyytiäinen, Kari Petri

    AU - Meier, H. E. Markus

    AU - Tomczak, Maciej T.

    AU - Barbara, Bauer

    AU - Haapasaari, Päivi Elisabet

    AU - Olesen, Jorgen E.

    AU - Gustafsson, Bo G.

    AU - Refsgaard, Jens Christian

    AU - Fridell, Erik

    AU - Pihlainen, Sampo Olavi

    AU - Le Tissier, Martin D.A.

    AU - Kosenius, Anna-Kaisa Elisabet

    AU - van Vuuren, Detlef P.

    PY - 2019/4

    Y1 - 2019/4

    N2 - Long-term scenario analyses can be powerful tools to explore plausible futures of human development under changing environmental, social, and economic conditions and to evaluate implications of different approaches to reduce pollution and resource overuse. Vulnerable ecosystems like the Baltic Sea in North-Eastern Europe tend to be under pressure from multiple, interacting anthropogenic drivers both related to the local scale (e.g. land use change) and the global scale (e.g. climate change). There is currently a lack of scenarios supporting policy-making that systematically explore how global and regional developments could concurrently impact the Baltic Sea region. Here, we present five narratives for future development in the Baltic Sea region, consistent with the global Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) developed for climate research. We focus on agriculture, wastewater treatment, fisheries, shipping, and atmospheric deposition, which all represent major pressures on the Baltic Sea. While we find strong links between the global pathways and regional pressures, we also conclude that each pathway may very well be the host of different sectoral developments, which in turn may have different impacts on the ecosystem state. The extended SSP narratives for the Baltic Sea region are intended as a description of sectoral developments at regional scale that enable detailed scenario analysis and discussions across different sectors and disciplines, but within a common context. In addition, the extended SSPs can readily be combined with climate pathways for integrated scenario analysis of regional environmental problems.

    AB - Long-term scenario analyses can be powerful tools to explore plausible futures of human development under changing environmental, social, and economic conditions and to evaluate implications of different approaches to reduce pollution and resource overuse. Vulnerable ecosystems like the Baltic Sea in North-Eastern Europe tend to be under pressure from multiple, interacting anthropogenic drivers both related to the local scale (e.g. land use change) and the global scale (e.g. climate change). There is currently a lack of scenarios supporting policy-making that systematically explore how global and regional developments could concurrently impact the Baltic Sea region. Here, we present five narratives for future development in the Baltic Sea region, consistent with the global Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) developed for climate research. We focus on agriculture, wastewater treatment, fisheries, shipping, and atmospheric deposition, which all represent major pressures on the Baltic Sea. While we find strong links between the global pathways and regional pressures, we also conclude that each pathway may very well be the host of different sectoral developments, which in turn may have different impacts on the ecosystem state. The extended SSP narratives for the Baltic Sea region are intended as a description of sectoral developments at regional scale that enable detailed scenario analysis and discussions across different sectors and disciplines, but within a common context. In addition, the extended SSPs can readily be combined with climate pathways for integrated scenario analysis of regional environmental problems.

    KW - AGRICULTURAL NITROGEN

    KW - Agriculture

    KW - CLIMATE-CHANGE RESEARCH

    KW - ECOSYSTEM

    KW - EMISSIONS

    KW - Environmental problems

    KW - FOOD

    KW - FUTURE

    KW - Fisheries

    KW - IMPACTS

    KW - MANAGEMENT

    KW - SANITATION

    KW - SCENARIOS

    KW - Scenarios

    KW - Shipping

    KW - Wastewater treatment

    U2 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-018-1453-0

    DO - https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-018-1453-0

    M3 - Article

    VL - 19

    SP - 1073

    EP - 1086

    JO - Regional Environmental Change

    JF - Regional Environmental Change

    SN - 1436-3798

    IS - 4

    ER -