The political economy dynamics of global disintegration and its implications for war, peace and security in the 21st century

I discuss the theory of capitalist peace according to which contractual social relations, free trade and cross-border investments are conducive to peace. From a post-Keynesian and more generally heterodox economic theory viewpoint, the dynamics of the world political economy can also instigate disintegration and escalation of conflicts. First, I sketch some key paradoxes and contradictions of capitalist market economy. These paradoxes and contradictions have critical implications for the theory of liberal-capitalist peace. Second, I explain Piketty’s inequality r > g and its wider meaning to democracy and global integration under market globalism. Third, I describe briefly two mechanisms (anxiety evoking othering, securitization) that can explain the move from uncertainty and inequalities to antagonisms and potential for organized violence. Fourth, I summarize how these mechanisms can shape macro-history and why the anticipation of a global military catastrophe by futurologists such as Attali and Wagar are not only relevant but unfortunately also plausible. Finally, I discuss briefly how the contradictions of global political economy could be overcome by collective actions and by building better common institutions.