Linkages between warming Arctic and climate extremes in northern Eurasia

The main goal of the project was to better understand complex processes that potentially link Arctic warming (or Arctic amplification) with weather and climate in northern Eurasia, including extreme events. This ambitious goal was partially achieved by completing studies revealing combinatory interactions of regional air-ice-ocean systems surrounding northern Eurasia. These interacting systems, denoted as teleconnections, affect the regional weather and climate. Related to this, we identified issues which decrease the forecast skill in coupled models and retrospective atmosphere-ocean analysis. We could then explain a number of physical mechanisms behind these teleconnections.

The project results highlight the complexity of the climate system, the relative importance of various teleconnections and their interactions. For example, the regional effects of Arctic amplification in northern Eurasia are practically impossible to separate from simultaneously active teleconnection effects originating from other surrounding regions, such as the tropics and the Atlantic.