A ground-motion prediction equation for Fennoscandian nuclear installations

Ludovic Fülöp, Vilho Jussila, Riina Maria Aapasuo, Tommi Antton Tapani Vuorinen, Päivi Birgitta Mäntyniemi

Forskningsoutput: TidskriftsbidragArtikelVetenskapligPeer review


We propose a ground-motion prediction equation (GMPE) for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) of nuclear installations in Finland. We collected and archived the acceleration recordings of 77 earthquakes from seismic stations on very hard rock (VHR, that is VS30 = 2800 m/s according to the definition used in nuclear industry) in Finland and Sweden since 2006 and computed the corresponding response spectra important for engineering evaluation. We augmented the narrow magnitude range of the local data by a subset of VHR recordings of 33 earthquakes from the Next-Generation Attenuation (NGA-East) database, mainly from eastern Canada. We adapted the backbone curves of the G-16 equation proposed by Graizer (2016) for Central and Eastern North America. After the calibration, we evaluated the accuracy of the median prediction and the random error. We conclude that the GMPE developed can be used for predicting ground motions in Fennoscandia. Due to compatibility with the original G-16 backbone curve and comparisons with the NGA-East GMPEs, we estimate that the formulation proposed is valid on VHR over the range of 2 ≤ Mw ≤ 7.0 and 0 ≤ Rrup ≤ 300 km, the depth range over 1.5-37 km, and frequencies between 1 and 100 Hz. The median of the composite prediction of the proposed GMPE was reasonable. The standard deviation of the prediction error (σ) was over the range of 0.73 ~ 0.86, in ln spectral acceleration units, for the relevant spectral frequencies. This is somewhat lower than the G-16 σ, indicating lower aleatory variability. The new Fenno-G16 GMPE is applicable over a wider range of magnitudes than two older GMPEs available in Finland, and fits the data better, especially for peak ground acceleration and 25 Hz.

TidskriftBulletin of the Seismological Society of America
Status!!E-pub ahead of print - 12 maj 2020
MoE-publikationstypA1 Tidskriftsartikel-refererad


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