Combining exploratory scenarios and Bayesian belief networks to analyse the sustainability of Baltic herring and salmon fisheries

Forskningsoutput: KonferensbidragSammanfattning

Sammanfattning

Exploratory scenario method is often used in planning for long-term sustainable use of environmental resources. Exploratory scenarios are plausible and relevant storylines on how the future might unfold. This paper combines
exploratory scenario method and Bayesian belief networks (BBN) to analyse the sustainability of commercial Baltic herring and salmon fisheries in 2040. First, following the matrix logic approach, two critically uncertain driving forces were identified to build a scenario cross. These were 1) whether governance in the EU is integrated or fragmented, and 2) whether environmental awareness and engagement in the Baltic Sea region is high or low. Four contrasting storylines for the future of Baltic herring and salmon fisheries (Inequality, Transformation to sustainability, Transformation to protectionism, and Business-as-usual) were created based on the identified driving forces and elements, and their respective causal links. Second, the storylines were formulated as a Bayesian influence diagram to quantify and analyse the impacts of the driving forces to the social-ecological system and ultimately achieving the fisheries management objectives, including ecological, social and economic sustainability, and increasing fisheries contribution to food security and safety. The BBN presented in this paper is an artificial intelligence tool to help in thinking the complex future scenarios in a systemic way. This type of systematic futures thinking could potentially increase the ability of the fisheries governance systems to deal with unfavourable or unexpected future developments.
Originalspråkengelska
Antal sidor1
StatusPublicerad - nov 2017
EvenemangRISK 2017 - Society for Risk Analysis (SRA) 3rd Nordic Chapter Conference - Espoo, Finland
Varaktighet: 2 nov 20173 nov 2017

Konferens

KonferensRISK 2017 - Society for Risk Analysis (SRA) 3rd Nordic Chapter Conference
LandFinland
OrtEspoo
Period02/11/201703/11/2017

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