Contradictory developments in the 2020s: progressive learning vs the increasingly likely possibility of a global military catastrophe

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Sammanfattning

In scenario A, conflicts between states escalate further, step by step. The process is marked by regional conflicts and global re-alignments and alliances. The process includes events during which social meanings, mentalities, forces, mechanisms, and institutions continue to change. The conditions for a global military catastrophe are created as these processes progress.

In scenario B, peaceful and possibly democratic reforms of global economic governance are possible without a major global catastrophe. These reforms mitigate the tendencies and tensions that lead toward Scenario A, and may even help to transform them. Scenario C focuses on slower processes (climate change) and more localized global disasters (e.g. a limited nuclear war). Here, I consider, for example, climate change only as part of the B scenarios.

It is possible that learning about global problems, contradictions and threats will help create a movement capable of changing global economic governance systems. In the 2020s, the clearest example of this is the global climate movement. The realization of a global Keynesian world order will take time. For the time being, world history is mainly following the path of scenario A. My conclusion is that confidence-building measures, arms limitation negotiations, and the activity of non-aligned countries are necessary because the adequate realization of B-scenarios will take 10-20 years even in the best case, but we also need new forms of transformative political agency.
Originalspråkengelska
StatusPublicerad - 20 juli 2022
MoE-publikationstypEj behörig
EvenemangUnkown Wars - Online
Varaktighet: 14 juli 202220 juli 2022
https://unknownwars.euasu.org/

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KonferensUnkown Wars
Period14/07/202220/07/2022
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