Prior knowledge predicts students' learning and later systems thinking skills of wicked problems

This study combined longitudinal and individual process-level analyses to investigate the development of expertise among university biology students (N = 33) during their bachelor studies. Open-ended tasks measuring students’ conceptual understanding regarding photosynthesis and evolution was repeated three times during the bachelor studies. Additionally, a case task including scientific research material and questions concerning a multifaceted and complex phenomenon, that is the effects and challenges of the climate change for the forest ecosystems, was used. The processing of the case task material was investigated using eye-tracking. The results showed that students with deeper conceptual understanding in the beginning of the university studies succeeded better also in the third study year both in the conceptual understanding tasks and in the case task that required systemic thinking and applying of conceptual knowledge. Additionally, longer reading times regarding the sentences presenting conflicting information was related to weaker success in considering the expected challenges and effects of warming climate for forests. The result might indicate about certain students’ difficulties in processing material that includes conflicting knowledge and hence, their weaker systems thinking skills. Further, the results of this study indicate that conceptual understanding and systems thinking skills are related in aiming to understand complex, wicked problems such as climate change. The results also highlight the importance of early support, since the level and quality of prior knowledge seems to predict later success both regarding basic conceptual knowledge and related systems thinking skills.