Sustainability transition in shrinking regions: uncovering perceived regional opportunity spaces and expectations shaping regional development

Unsustainable consumption and production practices are driving various sustainability challenges, creating an urgent need for a radical shift in socio-technical systems toward more sustainable modes of production and consumption, known as a sustainability transition. This transition is also relevant for regions suffering from population decline. By integrating insights from regional opportunity space, sustainability transition, and shrinking regions, this article contributes to the broader discussion on how opportunities related to sustainability transitions are perceived in regions with declining populations. Empirically, this study examines the perceptions of municipal chief executives and chairmen of the municipal executive boards in the South Savo region in Eastern Finland. Based on 24 semi-structured interviews, the findings reveal that municipal decision-makers identified several opportunities, such as renewable energy and nature-based sustainable tourism. Although interviewees could discuss various aspects of the sustainability transition, their narratives were dominated by an economic perspective, thus the opportunity space offered by the sustainability transition was primarily perceived as a financial opportunity. This study also focused on the expectations of decision-makers and revealed that, despite their initial hopes that these opportunities could diversify local industries or create job opportunities, the conversation later shifted to the perception that many threats are associated with them.